TSLA Earnings Day: What’s Priced In—And Who Feels It Most

Merry Tesla (TSLA) earnings day to all who celebrate! As the EV leader reports after the close today (Wed, Oct 22, 2025), the market is buzzing with anticipation, not just for Tesla’s numbers, but for what it means to major ETFs like ARK Innovation ($ARKK), Invesco QQQ ($QQQ), and SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY), as well as Tesla-centric leveraged funds such as $TSLL, $TSLS, $TSLG, and $TSLO.

Earnings and Revenue Forecasts

Analysts are expecting earnings per share between $0.53 and $0.57, signaling a 25% year-over-year drop versus $0.72 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected at approximately $26.3 billion, up around 4% from last year’s $25.18 billion. Deliveries hit a record 497,099 vehicles, but profits are expected to compress due to ongoing price cuts aimed at defending market share. Tesla’s energy segment has become the bright spot, deploying 12.5 GWh of storage capacity — an all-time high — driven by surging AI data center power demand.

Implied Volatility and Market Positioning

Near-term implied volatility (IV): ~59% into the print. Barchart

Implied move (weekly expiries): about ±7.1% into Friday. OptionCharts (For context, Market Chameleon pegs Tesla’s average “predicted move” around earnings in the ~±8% ballpark historically.) Market Chameleon

ETF Impact and Tesla-Leveraged Plays

Tesla’s earnings reverberate across tech and innovation ETFs. It remains a top‑10 holding in ARKK, QQQ, and SPY, meaning any post‑earnings move will ripple through passive portfolios. Tesla‑focused ETFs are also in the spotlight:

Bull / Long

TSLL — Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X.

TSLG — Leverage Shares 2X Long TSLA (U.S. listing).

Bear / Short

TSLS — Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X (inverse).

TSLO — Leverage Shares -1X Short TSLA (ETP).

Given TSLA’s volatility and leverage multipliers, these ETFs may see outsized moves before and after the report as traders express bullish or bearish conviction.

Note: These products seek daily targets and can behave unexpectedly over multiple days (volatility drag/compounding). They’re generally short-term trading tools.

What’s Next

Today’s report is about more than just margins — it’s about Tesla’s next phase. Management commentary on AI, Robotaxi development, and energy storage expansion could prove pivotal for sentiment heading into a choppy Q4.

As traders often say on this day: may the odds be in your favor.

Quickly compare ARKK, QQQ or leveraged plays TSLL, TSLG with our ETF Compare Tool