TRXJPY Market Overview: A Bearish Turn with Key Support Testing

• TRXJPY formed a bearish reversal pattern amid increased volume, suggesting potential downward bias.
• Price dropped from 51.64 to 50.82 Yen, with key support at 50.90 and resistance near 51.40.
• RSI showed overbought levels reversed, while MACD turned negative, signaling weakening momentum.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price testing the lower band.
• Notional turnover spiked late in the day, aligning with the price decline toward 50.90.

The TRON/Yen pair (TRXJPY) opened at 51.52 Yen on September 20, 2025, and reached an intraday high of 51.64 before declining to a 24-hour low of 50.82 Yen, closing at 51.00 at 12:00 ET on September 21. Total volume for the period was 143,502.02, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 7,327,692.00 Yen, reflecting heightened interest and bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish reversal in the late hours of the session, with a large bearish candle at 02:30 ET marking a 0.15 Yen drop. This was followed by a series of declining lows and small bullish corrections that failed to retest the 51.50 level. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed near 51.52, while a doji at 08:00 ET highlighted indecision. Key support levels formed at 50.90 and 50.82, both coinciding with strong bearish volume. Resistance remains at 51.40 and 51.55, where prior failures occurred.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at 51.15, and the 100-period MA at 51.35, both above the current price. This divergence suggests short-term weakness. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA sits at 51.30, indicating a potential path of resistance for any short-term rallies.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the early morning hours, confirming a shift in momentum. The histogram has remained below the zero line since 03:00 ET, reinforcing bearish sentiment. RSI dropped from overbought territory (70) to oversold levels (30), suggesting a strong bearish move. While this could indicate a short-term rebound, continued weakness below 50.90 would likely keep the indicator in oversold territory, prolonging downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased throughout the day, with Bollinger Bands expanding from a narrow range of 0.03 to a wider range of 0.12 Yen. Price tested the lower band at 50.82 before bouncing back slightly. This behavior suggests bearish exhaustion if the price continues to stay near the lower band. A break below 50.82 could trigger a further move toward 50.70–50.60, with increased risk of a continuation pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, with the largest single candle (at 02:30 ET) recording 3,883.77 volume and a 0.15 Yen drop. Notional turnover spiked during this period, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume has since decreased during the consolidation near 50.90–51.03, indicating a lack of follow-through from sellers. A divergence between volume and price could hint at a potential reversal if buyers take control near key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 0.74 Yen decline from 51.64 to 50.90 aligns with key Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% retracement is at 51.06, which the price tested twice but failed to hold above. The 50% level at 51.27 acted as resistance in the early morning, while the 38.2% level at 51.44 appears to be a potential ceiling for any near-term rallies. A retest of the 61.8% level could trigger a consolidation or reversal if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish reversal patterns, the breakdown below key support at 50.90, and confirmed bearish signals from both RSI and MACD, a short-selling strategy based on candlestick confirmation and Fibonacci retracement levels could be considered. A potential approach would involve entering a short position upon a close below 50.90 with a stop-loss placed above the 51.06 (61.8% retracement) level and targeting the 50.70–50.60 zone. This aligns with the bearish exhaustion observed near the lower Bollinger Band and the divergence in volume during the consolidation phase.