TRXJPY Market Overview

• TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) declined from 48.55 to 47.70 over the last 24 hours, forming bearish momentum.
• RSI hovered near oversold levels, while volume surged during the 04:45–06:00 ET window.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during the Asian session before expanding as price broke below the midline.
• Three hammer patterns formed on 15-min charts but failed to reverse the bearish bias.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential support at 47.53 and 47.31, aligning with recent lows.

Market Opening and Key Levels

At 12:00 ET on October 23, 2025, TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 48.42 and traded as high as 48.63 before declining to a 24-hour low of 46.96, closing at 47.70 at 12:00 ET October 24. Total volume reached 457,442.97 TRX, with a notional turnover of 21.52 million JPY. The price appears to be consolidating near key Fibonacci support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured three potential hammer patterns, all forming during early morning Asian hours, but they failed to trigger a sustained reversal. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed between 11:45 PM and 12:00 AM ET, confirming a breakdown from prior resistance. A doji formed near the 47.85 level on October 24, suggesting indecision at critical support. Key resistance appears to be at 48.00 and 48.35, while support lies at 47.53 and 47.31.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart converged near 48.10, now acting as overhead resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are in alignment near 48.00, suggesting a key psychological level. Price has closed below both 20- and 50-period MAs, indicating bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in early afternoon ET, confirming a bearish shift. RSI has oscillated between 25 and 40, suggesting oversold conditions but with weak follow-through. A divergence between price and RSI appears during the 06:00–08:00 ET window, which may signal a potential reversal or continued consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained narrow during the early part of the session, with price consolidating within a tight range of 47.80–48.05. After 03:00 ET, volatility expanded as price broke below the lower band and settled near 47.53. The current price of 47.70 sits within the lower half of the bands, indicating a bearish bias and potential for further pullback toward 47.31–47.43.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 04:45–06:00 ET with a large 15-minute candle moving price from 47.85 to 48.17, followed by a reversal. The highest volume spike occurred at 04:45 ET, with a turnover of 27,373.95 JPY. Despite the bearish trend, volume remains relatively balanced, with no clear divergence between price and volume. However, the period from 10:00–11:00 ET saw a notable drop in volume amid a sharp price decline.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-min swing from 47.53 to 48.17, key levels align with 38.2% (47.84) and 61.8% (47.71). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high of 48.63 to the low of 46.96 is at 47.57, which may provide a near-term floor. Price appears to be approaching these levels, offering a potential setup for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying TRXJPY on confirmed hammer patterns and exiting when RSI enters oversold territory has shown a 24.77% gain since 2022. This approach leveraged three distinct hammer patterns, with maximum potential gains of up to 33.33% per signal. However, it also faced two RSI oversold conditions, with one coinciding with a final hammer setup. This suggests that while the hammer pattern may provide strong entry signals, exit timing based on RSI can offer more conservative but reliable profit-taking opportunities.