TRXJPY Falls 64.64% in 24 Hours Amid Sharp Short-Term Volatility

On SEP 6 2025, TRXJPY dropped by 64.64% within 24 hours to reach $48.82, marking one of the most significant single-day declines in its recent history. This sharp correction followed a 7-day drop of 818.4% and a 1-month decline of 820.23%, indicating an ongoing bearish trend despite a 1132.3% increase over the past year. The recent volatility suggests heightened sensitivity to market sentiment and underlying technical indicators.

The TRXJPY pair has shown a marked breakdown in key support levels, with price action confirming a move below critical moving averages. This has reinforced bearish momentum and triggered stop-loss orders, amplifying the downward pressure. Analysts have noted that the rapid drop reflects a combination of profit-taking from the previous year's rally and potential positioning adjustments in broader cross-currency flows. While no direct reports on specific macroeconomic factors have been cited, the magnitude of the decline suggests a shift in market positioning.

From a technical perspective, the 24-hour drop aligns with a breakdown from a key consolidation range, suggesting a continuation pattern is in place. The RSI and MACD have both entered oversold territory, indicating a potential near-term pause in the decline. However, the absence of bullish follow-through in recent candlestick formations suggests that momentum remains decisively bearish. Analysts project that the next support level is likely around the $40 mark, with a breach of this level potentially extending the decline further.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy is based on technical indicators and price action signals observed in the recent breakdown. The strategy employs a combination of the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, with an emphasis on RSI and MACD divergence to detect potential turning points. A sell signal is triggered when price closes below the 50-period moving average after an extended bullish phase, and RSI confirms a bearish divergence. The entry point is set on the following bar after the crossover, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent swing high. The target is determined by the nearest significant support level. Given the recent move, this strategy could have identified early signs of the breakdown and potentially limited exposure to the sharp decline.