TRUUSDT Market Overview: 2025-09-18

• TRUUSDT surged from $0.0311 to $0.0338, driven by bullish momentum and above-average volume.
• Price found support near $0.0325–0.0327 before breaking above key resistance at $0.0334–0.0336.
• RSI and MACD showed strong bullish divergence, confirming the upward thrust.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating rising volatility during the rally.
• Notional turnover spiked during the final 6 hours, aligning with price strength.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at $0.0312 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0336 by the same time on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour range spanned $0.0311 to $0.0338, with total volume of 45.4 million TRU and notional turnover of $14.8 million. The pair displayed strong bullish sentiment, particularly in the final hours of the reporting window.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for TRUUSDT featured a strong bullish breakout from a consolidation range between $0.0325 and $0.0327. Several bullish engulfing patterns and hammer formations emerged in the early hours, with a key breakout candle forming around 2025-09-18 at 08:15 ET. This candle gapped up and closed at $0.0336, forming a clear breakout above the prior resistance zone. Price action suggests a shift in sentiment from bearish to constructive, with $0.0334–0.0336 now acting as the new support area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed to the upside in the morning, forming a golden cross. The 20-period MA was positioned near $0.0330, while the 50-period MA was at $0.0328, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, price closed above both the 50- and 100-period SMAs, with the 200-period MA lagging below, suggesting potential for a continuation of the upward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the afternoon of 2025-09-18, with a bullish histogram expanding in tandem with rising price. The RSI surged to 65, showing strong momentum but not yet in overbought territory. A divergence was observed between the RSI and price during the afternoon, with RSI peaking before price, signaling a possible exhaustion in short-term upward thrust. However, the overall trend remains constructive.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakout phase, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the upper band at $0.0338, suggesting that bullish pressure remained strong. The middle band was near $0.0332, with the lower band at $0.0327, forming a clear volatility channel. A break above $0.0338 could target $0.0341–0.0344, while a retest of $0.0327 could confirm support before a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the final hours, with the most notable spike occurring at 08:15 ET when volume reached 8.1 million TRU. This aligns with the breakout candle and suggests institutional or heavy retail participation. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching $2.7 million in one candle, reinforcing the price move. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, indicating strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0325 to $0.0338, the 38.2% level is at $0.0333, and the 61.8% level is at $0.0336. Price closed near the 61.8% retracement, aligning with a key psychological level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the previous 24-hour swing sits near $0.0329, a level that may offer support in a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on TRUUSDT when the price closes above the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and a candlestick close above a recent swing high. A stop-loss could be placed below the 20-period SMA or the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach aligns with the observed breakout pattern and would aim to capture the continuation of the upward bias seen in the last 24 hours. A trailing stop or profit target near the upper Bollinger Band or next Fibonacci level could optimize risk-to-reward.