TRUUSDT Market Overview: 2025-09-17

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) tested key resistance twice before retreating, forming bearish momentum.
• Price action showed a 0.6% 24-hour decline amid increasing volume and diverging turnover.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the midday rally, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the morning surge, then collapsed as price consolidated near key support.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at $0.0318 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.0330, and closed at $0.0314 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. The pair experienced total volume of 9,082,087 TRU and a notional turnover of approximately $292,100. The price trended upward during the early hours before a sharp consolidation and pullback in the late session.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong resistance at $0.0323–0.0330, where candlestick patterns like the inverted hammer and hanging man indicated potential bearish reversals. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:30 ET, marking the beginning of the downward trend. Notable support levels emerged at $0.0317 and $0.0314, with the latter showing increased volume and consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed in a bearish death cross, confirming a shift in momentum. The 50-period SMA at $0.0320 acted as a dynamic resistance, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs on the daily chart showed the price is now below both, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory around 03:45 ET, with a bearish histogram trend confirming the move. RSI hit overbought territory at $0.0325–0.0330 before diverging from price during the pullback, signaling exhaustion in the bullish phase. RSI is now consolidating near 50, indicating neutral momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the morning rally, with price reaching the upper band at $0.0325–0.0330, then collapsing into a contraction phase. Price is currently near the lower band at $0.0313–0.0316, suggesting oversold conditions that may trigger a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged to a peak of 2.4 million TRU at 07:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp rally. However, the corresponding notional turnover of ~$79,660 did not confirm the strength, indicating potential short-term selling pressure. Divergence between price and turnover in the morning session suggests profit-taking or bearish positioning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the swing from $0.0314 (09:45 ET) to $0.0330 (03:15 ET) identified key levels at $0.0323 (61.8%), $0.0321 (50%), and $0.0319 (38.2%). The price tested these levels before breaking down to $0.0314, confirming exhaustion in the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a Bollinger Band squeeze entry strategy (with 20-period BB) in conjunction with MACD crossover and RSI divergence could provide a systematic way to identify potential short-term reversals. A long entry would be triggered on the close above the upper band with RSI crossing 50 and MACD in positive territory; a short entry would be on a close below the lower band with RSI <50 and MACD negative. This approach aligns with the observed volatility expansion during the morning rally and could be refined with stop-loss and trailing take-profit levels based on key Fibonacci and moving average levels.