Trusting Wall Street’s Bullish Bias or Letting Data Decide? The Case for Roblox’s RBLX in May 2025

The investment world is rife with contradictions: Wall Street’s rosy outlook for Roblox (RBLX) clashes with the stark realities of quantitative data. As of May 2025, the stock faces a critical question: Should investors blindly trust the 33 brokerage firms chanting “Buy,” or does the Zacks Rank’s earnings-driven framework offer a clearer path? Let’s dissect the bias, the numbers, and what they mean for your portfolio.

The Analysts’ Bullish Overload: A Bias by Design

Roblox’s sell-side ratings present a compelling narrative: 64% of analysts (16 out of 25) have issued Strong Buy ratings, pushing its Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) to 1.84—a near-Strong Buy. But dig deeper, and the numbers tell a different story.

First, the Strong Buy-to-Sell ratio is 13:2, a staggering 5:1 imbalance. Analysts are 5 times more likely to recommend buying RBLX than selling. This isn’t unique to Roblox—it’s a systemic bias. Brokers face conflicts of interest, often prioritizing relationships with corporations over neutral analysis. As the data notes, the Street’s 5:1 Strong Buy-to-Sell ratio across all stocks is no accident.

Second, the consensus price target of $60.91 lags far behind RBLX’s recent price action. The stock hit a 52-week high of $82.02 in May 2025, outperforming its target by over 30%. This gap suggests analysts’ targets are lagging indicators, slow to adjust to rapid market shifts.

The Zacks Rank: A Data-Driven Counterbalance

Enter the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model focused on earnings estimate revisions. As of May 2025, RBLX holds a #2 (Buy) rating, reflecting a 4.4% upward revision in its fiscal year EPS estimate over the prior month. This isn’t just optimism—it’s math.

The catalyst? RBLX’s May 1, 2025 earnings report, where it beat EPS expectations by 22% (actual: -$0.32 vs. forecast -$0.41) and crushed revenue by 5.35%. Analysts swiftly revised their models, pushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate to -$1.41 for the year—a sign of improving fundamentals.

The Zacks Rank also aligns with price momentum: RBLX surged 40.5% YTD, far outpacing its sector’s 6.1% gain. This isn’t just hype; it’s a data-backed signal of organic demand.

Why the Street’s “Buy” Might Be Misleading

While analysts love RBLX’s growth narrative—its Q2 2025 revenue guidance of $1.02–1.045 billion and narrowing net loss—these numbers are just forecasts. The Street’s bullish stance ignores two critical risks:

1. Valuation Stretch: At a 52-week high, RBLX’s price-to-sales ratio has surged, leaving little room for error.
2. Execution Pressure: Meeting revised guidance requires flawless execution, especially in a competitive metaverse space.

The Zacks Rank, however, is blind to hype. It focuses on earnings revisions, not headlines. As of May 2025, its #2 rating is a vote of confidence in RBLX’s ability to deliver on its financial promises.

The Bottom Line: Trust Data, Not Delusions

The choice is clear: Wall Street’s bias-driven ABR of 1.84 is a lagging indicator, while the Zacks Rank’s #2 Buy rating is a real-time reflection of earnings momentum.

For investors, here’s the playbook:

• Buy now: The Zacks Rank’s quantitative edge supports entry at current levels, especially with RBLX’s outperformance and narrowing loss guidance.
• Set a guardrail: Use the $60.91 consensus target as a stop-loss—not a ceiling.
• Watch revisions: If Zacks revises its rank to #1 (Strong Buy) on further upside in estimates, it’s a green light for accumulation.

Final Verdict

In May 2025, Roblox is a stock where data trumps dogma. While analysts’ Strong Buys reflect a compelling growth story, the Zacks Rank’s focus on earnings revisions offers a safer path. With a #2 Buy rating, RBLX merits a buy, but only if you let numbers—not hype—guide your decisions. The Street may be optimistic, but the market rewards those who trust the math.

This analysis is based on data as of May 16, 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.