TRUMPUSDT Market Overview 2025-10-12

• Price for TRUMPUSDT declined from $6.19 to $5.88 before rebounding to close near $6.15.
• Strong bearish momentum early morning (ET) followed by bullish reversal in late afternoon.
• Volatility expanded during sharp declines and narrowed on consolidation.
• Volume surged during key turns, confirming price movements.
• RSI suggested oversold conditions mid-session before price rebounded.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $6.11 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $6.19, and a low of $5.88, closing at $6.15 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Total volume amounted to 3,802,890.50 and total turnover was $23,303,006.26 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a strong bearish move in early morning trading, characterized by a long bearish candle on the 17:45–18:00 ET timeframe, followed by a consolidation phase. A key support level formed at $5.88, where the price found a floor and reversed higher. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:30–06:00 ET, signaling a potential trend reversal. A bearish doji formed during the $5.86–$5.88 range, indicating indecision before the bounce. The overall price action suggests short-term traders were active in both directions, with a clear low-risk entry point developing post-support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support levels earlier in the session before the price reversed. This indicated a bearish bias during the initial phase. By late afternoon, the 20-period MA began crossing above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The daily chart (not fully provided) would likely show a 50-period MA near the 100-period and 200-period MA in a bearish configuration, suggesting a more cautious stance for longer-term investors.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive around 05:30–06:00 ET, coinciding with the bullish engulfing pattern and confirming the reversal. The RSI dropped below 30 during the $5.88 low, indicating oversold conditions, followed by a rapid recovery to above 45 as the price reversed. This suggests that the short-term bearish momentum had likely exhausted itself, and the market was primed for a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Price tested the lower Bollinger Band during the decline to $5.88, confirming oversold conditions. The consolidation phase saw a contraction in the bands, indicating reduced volatility. As the price rebounded, it moved back into the upper portion of the bands, suggesting increased volatility and potential for further upward movement. The narrowing of bands mid-session was followed by a sharp expansion, typical of a breakout scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning bearish move, confirming the strength of the sell-off. A secondary volume spike occurred during the bullish reversal around 05:30–06:00 ET, validating the change in direction. Turnover remained elevated during these periods, aligning with price movements. Notably, the volume during the rebound was slightly lower than during the decline, suggesting that the bullish momentum might not be as strong.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels during the recent swing from $6.19 to $5.88 included the 38.2% retracement at $6.06 and the 61.8% retracement at $5.98. The price tested the 61.8% level before reversing higher, indicating that this level served as a psychological pivot. Short-term traders could use these levels as potential entry or exit points in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a strategy based on the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI crossover above 30 is applied, it would suggest entering long at $5.88 with a stop-loss below $5.85 and a target near $6.13. Given the confirmation from both volume and the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA, this setup carries a medium to high probability of success in the short term. The Fibonacci retracement levels also provide natural reference points for risk management and profit-taking.