TRUMPUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• Price declined sharply from $7.23 to $4.21 during a 15-minute crash before rallying.
• Volatility surged as 6.11–5.31 became a key range for consolidation.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the sell-off, signaling panic trading.
• RSI and MACD suggest exhaustion on the downside, hinting at a potential bounce.
• 5.90–6.10 may form a near-term support/resistance cluster based on Fibonacci and price action.

The OFFICIAL TRUMP/Tether (TRUMPUSDT) pair opened at $7.23 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to $7.29 before dropping to $4.21 during a sharp sell-off at 21:30 ET, and closed at $6.15 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume over 24 hours was 42,700,000 units, with a notional turnover of $226,500,000 (calculated using mid-candle volume and close prices).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw a dramatic bearish reversal after a strong early morning rally. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 21:30 candle as the asset dropped from $7.29 to $4.21. This was followed by a consolidation phase between $5.31 and $6.11. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared in the late morning as price surged from $5.93 to $6.15, suggesting potential recovery. A long-legged doji formed around $5.90, indicating indecision. Critical support levels may be forming around $5.90–$5.80 and resistance near $6.05–$6.20.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish crossover during the crash, but later crossed back into a bullish alignment as the price rebounded. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed above the 100-period line, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. However, the 200-period moving average remains above the current price, suggesting medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish during the morning rebound, with a positive histogram forming as momentum shifted. RSI hit oversold territory around $5.31 and bounced back toward neutral levels, suggesting exhaustion on the downside. A potential overbought condition may form above $6.15 if the upward move continues, but caution is warranted as the RSI remains in midrange.

Bollinger Bands

The sharp drop from $7.29 to $4.21 caused the Bollinger Bands to widen significantly, signaling high volatility. Price spent much of the session consolidating within the bands between $5.31 and $6.11, with the 6.09 close at the upper band. This suggests price is beginning to stabilize, and a potential breakout attempt may occur in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the crash, peaking at over 2.5 million units for the 21:30 candle. Notional turnover spiked as the price dropped sharply, indicating panic selling. In the recovery phase, volume remained robust but slightly below the peak, suggesting that buyers are stepping in but not overwhelming sellers. A divergence between price and volume in the upper end of the consolidation range could indicate a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the major swing from $7.29 to $4.21 identified key levels for potential bounce or continuation. The 50% retrace level at $5.75 and the 61.8% level at $6.09 both coincided with areas of price consolidation and recent buying. The 38.2% level at $5.58 also saw a bounce, reinforcing its significance as a short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure, a backtest could model a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern (as seen on the 21:30–03:30 consolidation phase), with a stop-loss placed below the 5.90 support level. A take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $6.09–$6.15 would align with recent price action and the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD crossover and RSI reentry into neutral territory further support this hypothesis. This strategy would be most effective in a high-volatility environment with clear support/resistance boundaries.