TRUMPJPY -120.27% in 1 Year Amid Sharp Downtrend and Technical Deterioration

On OCT 8 2025, TRUMPJPY dropped by 8.69% within 24 hours to reach $1150, TRUMPJPY dropped by 120.27% within 7 days, dropped by 120.27% within 1 month, and dropped by 120.27% within 1 year.

The asset has entered a period of extended bearish momentum, marked by a sharp decline over the past year. TRUMPJPY has not shown meaningful recovery in the face of sustained selling pressure, with price levels failing to stabilize above key resistance areas. The one-year drop of 120.27% underscores a structural shift in market sentiment, as long-term holders and short-term traders alike have exited positions amid deteriorating fundamentals and technical indicators.

Technical indicators have shown consistent bearish signals across multiple timeframes. The 200-day moving average, once a potential support level, has been decisively broken, and the RSI remains in oversold territory, indicating limited near-term bounce potential. Additionally, the MACD has failed to produce bullish divergences, suggesting that the downward trend is likely to persist without a major catalyst for reversal.

The recent 24-hour drop of 8.69% has further exacerbated the bearish bias, pushing the asset into what many technical traders now consider a critical phase. Market participants are closely monitoring for signs of capitulation or renewed buying interest, though the extended negative performance indicates that any such reversal may require a dramatic shift in market dynamics.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed trading strategy for TRUMPJPY is based on the application of specific technical indicators and entry/exit rules. The hypothesis involves entering short positions following a confirmed break of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, combined with a bearish RSI divergence. Exit rules are structured to include a stop-loss at the nearest psychological level above the entry point and a profit target set at the next key support level.

The backtesting aims to validate the effectiveness of this strategy under the current bearish trend, using historical data from the past 12 months. By applying this structured approach, the strategy seeks to quantify potential risk-adjusted returns and determine whether a consistent edge exists in trading TRUMPJPY during extended downtrends.