Trump Warns Oil Price Drop Would Cripple Putin’s War Effort

Trump criticized Russia’s economy, calling it “stinks,” during a live interview on Squawk Box, and warned that continued declines in oil prices would severely undermine Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain his military efforts in Ukraine. He argued that energy revenue is the lifeblood of the war, and if prices drop further—specifically by another $10 per barrel—Russia would be forced to cease hostilities. Trump reiterated that oil and gas exports are the economic foundation for Putin’s war machine, and without them, the conflict would collapse [1].

This statement is part of an ongoing public spat between Trump and Putin, who has remained silent on Trump’s remarks for over a month. Instead, Russian deputy leader Dmitry Medvedev has taken the lead in responding, calling Trump’s statements “dangerous” and claiming they risk pushing the U.S. toward internal conflict. Medvedev emphasized that Putin does not consider Trump a peer and thus will not engage with his provocations [1].

In the broader context of Trump’s Ukraine peace strategy, he recently reduced the timeline for a potential agreement from 50 days to under two weeks, signaling that if Russia does not comply, he would impose strict secondary tariffs on countries continuing to trade with Moscow. These measures are intended to pressure nations into choosing sides, further isolating Russia economically. Medvedev responded by warning that such ultimatums bring the U.S. closer to self-inflicted war, not peace [1].

Trump also targeted India for its trade practices, accusing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of reselling discounted Russian oil at a profit, effectively funding the war effort. He announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on India, which he described as “not a good trading partner.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defended India, stating that sovereign nations have the right to choose their trade partners and dismissed Trump’s threats as mere pressure tactics [1].

Meanwhile, the Russian economy is indeed under pressure, with falling oil prices compounding existing challenges. On Tuesday, Brent crude dropped to $67.92 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell to $65.41. This decline follows an OPEC+ decision to increase oil output, which has raised concerns about global demand. Russia’s finance ministry has revised its oil price forecast downward and anticipates a 24% reduction in oil and gas revenues for the year. It has also raised its projected budget deficit for 2025 from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP [1].

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry forecasts slower growth in 2025, projecting an expansion of only 2.5%, down from 4.3% in 2024. Inflation is officially reported at around 10%, but independent analysts suggest it may be as high as 15%, driven by rising food and production costs. Putin himself has acknowledged the economic situation as “alarming.” The International Monetary Fund further downgraded Russia’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in July, citing weak retail activity and declining industrial output [1].

Despite these economic headwinds, the Russian economy has not collapsed, and the government remains stable. Trade with countries like India and China continues, and Putin shows no signs of yielding to external pressure. Trump, meanwhile, continues to seek a public reaction from the Kremlin that has not yet materialized, and may never come.

Sources:

[1] Title: Trump said Russia’s economy “stinks” and warned low oil prices will cripple Putin’s war effort

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