Trump warns of ‘bad things’ if Afghanistan does not return control of Bagram base

Trump warns of ‘bad things’ if Afghanistan does not return control of Bagram base

In a surprising announcement during his UK visit, former US President Donald Trump stated that his administration had been working to regain control of Bagram Air Base, located in Afghanistan. The base, built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, served as the largest US military center during the two-decade occupation. Trump's claim that the US sought to reclaim the base has sparked immediate reactions from both the Afghan government and geopolitical analysts.

The Afghan government swiftly dismissed the possibility of reestablishing a US military presence in the country. Zakir Jalaly, an official at the Afghan Foreign Ministry, stated that "Afghans have never accepted a military presence in history, and this possibility was also completely rejected during the Doha talks and agreement." He emphasized that the door remains open for other forms of engagement, including economic and political relations based on mutual respect and shared interests .

Geopolitical analysts have highlighted the strategic value of Bagram Air Base. Abdul Saboor Mubariz, a board member of the Center for Strategic and Regional Studies in Kabul, noted that the base holds significant strategic value for the US in countering the influence of China, Russia, and Iran. He suggested that granting the US control over the base would enhance its capacity to monitor Chinese military activity, carry out limited strikes, conduct covert operations, and gather vital intelligence .

Despite the potential benefits, the US has not formally recognized the new Afghan government after the Taliban took control of the country following the American and NATO withdrawal. Talks between the two sides have been limited to hostage negotiations, including discussions last week between authorities in Kabul and a US delegation led by Adam Boehler, the Trump administration’s special envoy for hostage response. While rejecting the US plan may further strain Kabul’s relations with Washington and cause further sanctions, Mubariz did not expect the Taliban to allow renewed American military presence .

The air base’s relevance has grown for the US in the wake of China’s military technology advancement and closer alliances with Russia, North Korea, and member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Alef Khan Atif, a political science lecturer at Dawat University in Kabul, emphasized that securing access to Bagram would enhance US influence across Central and South Asia, as well as the Middle East. It would provide a critical foothold for intelligence operations and military oversight in these regions, strengthening America’s strategic reach .

In conclusion, Trump’s warning about potential “bad things” if Afghanistan does not return control of Bagram Air Base reflects the strategic importance of the base for US interests in the region. However, the Afghan government's rejection of a US military presence and the ongoing hostage negotiations suggest that a renewed US presence at Bagram is unlikely in the near future.