The Trump-Venezuela Oil Play: Assessing the $100B Energy Reset and Geopolitical Risks

The geopolitical and economic landscape of Venezuela has undergone a seismic shift in late 2025 and early 2026, marked by the U.S.-led removal of President Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent push to revitalize the country's oil sector. At the heart of this transformation lies President Donald Trump's ambitious $100 billion Energy Reset initiative, a plan to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure and reposition the nation as a strategic player in global oil markets. While the vision is grand, the path to execution is fraught with political, economic, and geopolitical risks that demand rigorous scrutiny for any investor or energy sector stakeholder.

Trump's Vision: A $100B Bet on Venezuela's Oil

President Trump has made no secret of his enthusiasm for U.S. oil companies to lead the charge in Venezuela's energy revival. During a high-profile White House meeting in January 2026, Trump assured executives from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips of "total safety and total security" in Venezuela, framing the investment as a win-win for both American energy firms and the U.S. economy. The administration's three-phase plan-stabilize, recover, and transition- positions energy as the linchpin of Venezuela's economic rebirth.

However, the oil industry's response has been cautiously skeptical. ExxonMobil's CEO, Darren Woods, bluntly labeled Venezuela as "uninvestable" under current conditions, citing the need for sweeping legal and commercial reforms to address past expropriations and political instability. Chevron, meanwhile, has signaled openness to increasing production if conditions improve, but even this tentative optimism hinges on the interim government's ability to provide guarantees against future nationalizations.

The U.S. Department of Energy has taken a proactive role, marketing Venezuelan crude in global markets and managing proceeds through U.S.-controlled accounts to ensure transparency. Yet, the scale of the investment required-$100–200 billion over 7–15 years- raises questions about feasibility of attracting private capital without significant government support.

Geopolitical Risks: A Post-Maduro Minefield

The removal of Maduro has not only reshaped Venezuela's domestic politics but also disrupted its long-standing energy partnerships, particularly with China. For years, China's state-owned oil companies, including CNPC and Sinopec, operated in Venezuela's upstream sector, producing approximately 100,000 barrels per day through ventures like Sinovensa. U.S. sanctions and military intervention have severed these ties, redirecting oil flows to U.S. allies and sidelining China's influence in the region.

This shift carries broader implications. China, which imported 30,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude in 2024 (with hidden shipments likely doubling that figure), now faces a critical gap in its energy supply chain. Meanwhile, the U.S. has positioned itself to control Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, and redirect exports through "legitimate channels," a move that aligns with the Monroe Doctrine's reassertion of American dominance in Latin America.

For investors, the geopolitical risks are twofold. First, the U.S. military's prolonged presence in Venezuela could deter foreign capital, particularly from non-aligned nations wary of entanglement in U.S. strategic interests. Second, the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, while less socialist than Maduro, still retains a political framework that prioritizes state control over foreign investment. Without a constitutional amendment to return nationalized assets to their original owners, the legal environment remains a major hurdle.

Strategic Investment Analysis: Rewards vs. Realities

The potential rewards of the Energy Reset are undeniable. Venezuela's oil reserves- over 300 billion barrels-represent one of the largest untapped resources in the world. If production can be restored to historical levels of 2–3 million barrels per day, the U.S. Gulf Coast's refineries, optimized for processing Venezuela's heavy crude, could benefit from lower transportation costs and increased supply. This could also displace Canadian oil sands producers, who face higher costs and regulatory scrutiny.

However, the path to recovery is long and costly. Immediate production increases of 200,000–300,000 barrels per day are possible through well workovers, but reaching 2 million barrels per day will require 1–2 years of sustained investment. Full recovery to pre-2014 levels-when Venezuela produced 3.45 million barrels per day- could take a decade or more.

For U.S. oil majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil, the opportunity is tantalizing but conditional. As one industry analyst notes, "The key to unlocking Venezuela's potential lies in political stability and clear legal frameworks. Until then, the risks outweigh the rewards" according to CFR analysis. The same applies to international investors: without guarantees against future expropriations or geopolitical shocks, capital will remain hesitant.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

The Trump-Venezuela oil play is a high-stakes gamble with the potential to reshape global energy markets. The $100B Energy Reset initiative, while ambitious, hinges on the ability of the U.S. and interim Venezuelan authorities to stabilize the country's political and legal environment. Geopolitical risks, particularly the fallout from U.S.-China tensions and the uncertainty of long-term investment conditions, cannot be ignored.

For now, the energy sector remains in a holding pattern. U.S. oil companies are watching closely, and while Chevron's tentative interest offers a glimmer of hope, the broader industry's reluctance underscores the magnitude of the challenges ahead. Investors must weigh the strategic value of Venezuela's oil against the realities of political instability, infrastructure decay, and the shadow of past expropriations.

In the end, the success of the Energy Reset will depend not just on capital, but on the will to navigate a complex web of geopolitical and economic forces-a test that will define the future of Venezuela's oil sector and its role in the global energy landscape.