Trump's Twitter Ban End: A New Chapter for TMTG and "Trump Trades"?

The legal challenge over former President Donald Trump's Twitter ban following the Jan. 6 riot has come to an end, with Trump announcing his return to X (formerly Twitter) on Feb. 8, 2025. This development has sparked renewed interest in the performance of "Trump trades" such as Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), bitcoin, and other related assets. As investors and market participants assess the implications of Trump's return to social media, it is essential to examine the historical relationship between Trump's political events and the performance of these assets.



Trump's Twitter ban in January 2021 led to the launch of Truth Social, a social media platform owned by TMTG, which went public in March 2022. The company's stock ticker symbol, "DJT," reflects Trump's initials. TMTG's stock performance has been closely tied to Trump's political fortunes and social media presence. For instance, after Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race in July 2023, TMTG's stock lost about half its value. Conversely, after Trump's widely panned debate performance with Vice President Kamala Harris on June 28, 2024, TMTG shares initially spiked 10% but ended the day in the red. Following Harris' successful debate performance on February 8, 2025, TMTG shares plunged 17% to a record low, down 10% at the close.



Investors have used TMTG's stock price as a way to bet on Trump's political fortunes and the chances of his return to the White House. However, Trump's return to X could have significant implications for TMTG's Truth Social platform, given the company's admission that its business plan relies on Trump bringing his former social media followers to Truth Social. Trump's public embrace of X, a direct competitor, is unlikely to help TMTG's financial situation, as the company has yet to find a meaningful way to make money, despite its multibillion-dollar valuation.



Trump's return to X could also impact the performance of other "Trump trades" such as bitcoin. Following Trump's election win on November 6, 2024, bitcoin hit a record high of over $76,000. This surge in bitcoin's price can be attributed to investors' expectations of lower taxes, deregulation, and a U.S. president who is not shy to weigh in on various aspects of the economy, including the stock market and the dollar. Additionally, Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and his past tweets endorsing bitcoin have contributed to the positive correlation between his political events and bitcoin's performance.



In conclusion, Trump's return to X (formerly Twitter) could have significant implications for the performance of "Trump trades" such as TMTG, bitcoin, and other related assets. As investors and market participants assess the implications of this development, it is essential to examine the historical relationship between Trump's political events and the performance of these assets. While Trump's return to X could draw users away from Truth Social and negatively impact TMTG's stock performance, it could also boost the price of bitcoin and other related assets. As the political landscape continues to evolve, investors should remain vigilant and monitor the performance of these assets closely.