Trump's Tariffs: Limited Impact on Oil, Gas Prices, Goldman Sachs Says

President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements have sparked concerns about their potential impact on global energy markets and U.S. energy prices. However, Goldman Sachs Research economists have stated that the tariffs are unlikely to have a significant and lasting effect on oil and gas prices. This article explores the reasons behind their assessment and the potential implications for the energy market.



Goldman Sachs Research economists expect the U.S. economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other developed market (DM) economies for the third year in a row. They attribute this growth to higher China and auto tariffs, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. However, they caution that the biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which could hit growth hard.

The new tariffs imposed by President Trump on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are likely to have a limited near-term impact on global oil and gas prices, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank noted that potential tariff-driven declines in U.S. natural gas imports from Canada are too small to significantly raise U.S. natural gas prices. Additionally, Canadian oil producers are expected to bear most of the burden of the tariff, with a $3 to $4 per barrel wider-than-normal discount on Canadian crude, while U.S. consumers of refined products would bear the remaining $2 to $3 per barrel burden.

The investment bank kept its 2025/2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, expecting minimal near-term price impact due to stable global oil production and demand, as well as the Canadian oil tariff already being priced in. Last week, Goldman Sachs raised Brent oil price forecast for this year and 2026 to $78 (versus $76 previously) and $73 (from $71), respectively.

In conclusion, while President Trump's tariffs may have some short-term effects on energy prices, Goldman Sachs Research economists expect the impact to be limited and not lasting. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a healthy pace in 2025, driven by factors such as higher tariffs, lower immigration, and regulatory easing. However, the biggest risk remains a large across-the-board tariff, which could significantly impact economic growth. As the global economy continues to evolve, investors and businesses should stay informed about the potential implications of policy shifts and their impact on energy markets.