Trump Tariffs: Industries and Products Most at Risk

As President Donald Trump's administration considers imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and has threatened duties on goods from other nations, the agricultural sector is bracing for potential impacts. With these countries being top markets for U.S. farm products, the proposed tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures that hurt the $190 billion U.S. agricultural export sector. This article explores the industries and products most at risk from Trump's tariffs.



Soybeans

Soybeans, the top U.S. farm export by value, are particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. In 2023, exports to top market China totaled $15.1 billion, down from a record $17.9 billion in 2022. The value of shipments in 2024 was down 22% through November. If Canada and Mexico impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, this could further reduce exports and negatively impact U.S. soybean farmers.

Corn and Wheat

Corn and wheat exports could also be affected by retaliatory tariffs. In 2023, U.S. corn exports to all destinations fell to $13.1 billion, due to competition from other global suppliers. Total 2024 exports through November were up 6% from the prior year, but this growth could be threatened by retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico. Mexico is the top market for U.S. corn, importing $5.2 billion worth in 2024 through November.

U.S. wheat exports to all global buyers in 2023 were down 27%, at $6.1 billion. Exports in 2024 were down 2% through November, amid pressure from cheaper Russian supplies. Mexico is the top market for U.S. wheat, importing $937.8 million in 2024 through November.



Beef and Pork

Beef and pork exports could also be impacted by retaliatory tariffs. The United States exported nearly $10 billion in beef and beef products in 2023, with shipments in 2024 up 5% by value from the prior year. Mexico is the top market for U.S. beef, importing $2.0 billion in 2024 through November. U.S. pork and pork product exports totaled nearly $8.2 billion in 2023, with the value of 2024 shipments up 6% from the prior year. Mexico is the top market for U.S. pork, importing $2.3 billion in 2024 through November.

In conclusion, Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could have a significant impact on the U.S. agricultural sector, particularly for soybeans, corn, wheat, beef, and pork. Retaliatory tariffs from these countries could reduce exports and negatively impact U.S. farmers, potentially leading to lost sales and higher prices for consumers. As the situation unfolds, it is crucial for the agricultural industry to monitor the developments and adapt their strategies accordingly.