Trump's Tariff Claims Disputed: Actual Revenue 2-3 Billion Daily

Recent official data from the United States has revealed a significant discrepancy between the Trump administration's claims about its trade policies and the actual revenue generated from tariffs.

Over the past few weeks, President Trump has repeatedly boasted that his tariff policies bring in "20 billion dollars a day" for the United States. However, data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the U.S. Treasury Department paint a different picture. According to these agencies, the actual tariff revenue collected, even after the implementation of certain tariffs on April 5, amounts to only 2-3 billion dollars per day, a stark contrast to Trump's claims.

The CBP issued a statement to the media indicating that since April 5, the agency has collected over 5 billion dollars in tariffs under the new "reciprocal tariff" policy. When combined with the 15 presidential trade actions implemented since January 20, 2025, the total tariff revenue reaches 25 billion dollars.

The statement was prompted by a 10-hour system outage at the U.S. Customs on the previous Friday, which prevented importers from entering exemption codes to avoid higher tariffs on goods in transit. Despite this temporary disruption, the CBP emphasized that the daily revenue flow of 2.5 billion dollars remained unaffected.

In contrast, the U.S. Treasury Department's daily deposit report for Monday showed that the total amount recorded under "tariffs and specific consumption taxes" was only 3.05 billion dollars.

As a politician whose career is deeply intertwined with tariff policies, Trump's misconception about the daily tariff revenue collected by the U.S. has raised questions about the accuracy of his information. It is speculated that he may have been misled by his advisors.

In late March, Peter Navarro, one of Trump's senior trade advisors, stated in an interview that "the automobile tariffs alone could bring in approximately 100 billion dollars... Additionally, other tariffs would generate 600 billion dollars annually, totaling around 6 trillion dollars over a decade." Dividing 600 billion by 365 days gives approximately 1.64 billion dollars per day, which is close to Trump's claim of "20 billion dollars a day."

However, this calculation does not align with economic realities. The U.S. Tax Foundation's vice president for federal tax policy, Erica York, pointed out that Navarro's estimates overlooked changes in consumer behavior due to increased tariffs, retaliatory measures from other countries, and the impact on other tax revenues.

According to basic economic principles of "trade elasticity," increased tariffs can lead to a reduction in imports. Additionally, U.S. import data already includes tariff costs. Most importantly, tariffs are a tax imposed on U.S. businesses and consumers, which can result in decreased income for businesses and workers, job losses, and a subsequent reduction in government revenue from other sources.

This miscalculation by Navarro could have broader implications for Trump's political agenda. As a key piece of legislation before the midterm elections next year, Trump aims to extend the tax cut law by the end of this year, with the reduction amounting to "5-10 trillion dollars over ten years." Navarro frequently suggests that tariff revenue could offset the loss in tax revenue, indicating that Trump's critical economic agenda may be based on flawed arithmetic and unrealistic assumptions.