Trump's Reversal: Houthis Redesignated as Terrorists

As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House in January 2025, his administration is expected to take a firm stance on the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran and its regional allies. One of the most significant moves in this regard is the anticipated redesignation of the Houthi movement as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), reversing the decision made by the Biden administration. This article explores the strategic implications of this move, the potential responses from the Houthis, and the impact on humanitarian aid in Yemen.



Strategic Implications

Trump's decision to redesignated the Houthis as an FTO aligns with Saudi Arabia's stance on the group, strengthening the kingdom's position in the region and signaling US support for its policies. This move is also part of Trump's broader strategy to contain Iran and its regional influence, as the Houthis have received significant military and financial backing from Tehran. By designating the Houthis as an FTO, the Trump administration aims to deter further Iranian support for the group and put pressure on Iran to curb its regional activities.

However, this decision may also lead to further escalation in the region, as Iran and its proxies, including the Houthis, could retaliate. This could result in increased tensions between Iran and the US, as well as between Iran and its regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Houthis have already threatened to escalate their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in response to US and UK airstrikes.

Houthi Responses and Potential Escalations

The Houthis are likely to respond to the redesignation with a mix of defiance and strategic maneuvering. They may escalate their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, targeting more vessels and increasing the frequency of their operations. This could lead to further disruptions in global trade and potentially cause oil prices to spike, as analyzed by OilPrice.com. The Houthis have already demonstrated their willingness to target ships with no connection to the Israel-Hamas conflict, indicating a broader strategy to put pressure on the international community.

Increased support from Iran is also a possibility, with Tehran providing the Houthis with more advanced weaponry and training. This could help the Houthis maintain their military capabilities despite US and UK airstrikes and potentially even strengthen their position in Yemen. Iran's core objective of spreading its version of Shia Islam across the Middle East and beyond may also be advanced by increased support for the Houthis.

However, the Houthis may also engage in diplomatic efforts to counter the redesignation, seeking support from other countries in the region or international organizations. They could frame the US move as an attempt to undermine their legitimate struggle against the Saudi-led coalition and its Western backers, potentially isolating the US and its allies diplomatically.



Impact on Humanitarian Aid

The redesignation of the Houthis as an FTO could hinder humanitarian aid efforts in Yemen, as international organizations may face legal and logistical challenges in providing assistance to the group. This could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population relies on aid for survival. Humanitarian groups have expressed concern that the designation could disrupt their work, as Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, stated: "Where sanctions threaten to make our normal work illegal, they threaten the survival of people who depend on it."

To mitigate potential disruptions, the US government has announced plans to put in place measures to reduce the impact of the designation on certain humanitarian activity and imports into Yemen. These measures could include working with the United Nations and aid groups to help the humanitarian effort, identifying partners in Yemen who have made payments to Houthi rebels or entities they control, criticized efforts to counter the Houthis, or failed to document abuses committed by the group, and terminating projects, grants, or contracts identified as being associated with the Houthis.

In conclusion, Trump's decision to redesignated the Houthis as an FTO has significant strategic implications for the regional balance of power, particularly in relation to Iran and Saudi Arabia. It strengthens Saudi Arabia's position, counters Iran's influence, and could lead to further escalation in the region. However, it may also hinder humanitarian aid efforts and face criticism from the international community. The Houthis are likely to respond with a mix of defiance and strategic maneuvering, potentially leading to escalations in their military actions and increased support from Iran. The redesignation could also have significant implications for humanitarian aid delivery to Yemen, potentially exacerbating the ongoing humanitarian crisis.