Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Not Expected to Produce Ceasefire or Trade Deals

The White House has confirmed that the upcoming one-on-one summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska will not result in a ceasefire in Ukraine or produce major trade agreements. The meeting, scheduled for Friday, is described as a direct engagement aimed at allowing Trump to assess Putin’s intentions regarding the ongoing conflict [1]. A senior administration official emphasized that the meeting’s goal is to determine whether Putin is genuinely willing to pursue peace, not to deliver immediate diplomatic outcomes [2].

Trump’s decision to meet with Putin without preconditions stems from his belief that he can quickly gauge the Russian leader’s motives. During a recent public statement, Trump claimed he could judge within “two minutes” whether progress was possible, with his response potentially being either “lots of luck, keep fighting” or “we can make a deal” [3]. The White House is placing trust in Trump’s instincts, a strategy outlined by a high-level official as “trusting Trump’s instincts” [4].

The Russian side has reportedly submitted a written peace proposal to Trump, though the White House has not disclosed its contents and has suggested the plan may not be viable. The idea of trading land for peace has been floated, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has outright rejected this approach. Zelenskyy’s office has also indicated, based on intelligence reports, that Putin is not preparing for a ceasefire or an end to the war [5]. Zelenskyy has made it clear that any peace agreement must include a full ceasefire before territorial negotiations can take place [6].

While the Trump-Putin meeting is being framed as a first step toward potential future engagement, it is not being held in isolation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting with Trump, Zelenskyy, and other European leaders to discuss options for pressuring Russia, addressing territorial issues, and planning potential peace negotiations [7]. However, the White House has underscored that only one party—Putin—will be present in the Alaska summit, making it a “listening exercise” rather than a negotiation [8].

The situation on the ground remains volatile, with recent Russian advances in eastern Ukraine complicating any immediate diplomatic progress. Analysts have raised concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s public criticisms of Zelenskyy, which could signal a U.S. stance more favorable to Russia and less aligned with Ukrainian interests [9]. The White House has not ruled out the possibility of future meetings, including a trilateral format involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, but no concrete framework exists for such a discussion [10].

For now, the focus remains on Trump’s ability to read Putin and determine whether a path to peace is worth pursuing. The administration continues to temper expectations, acknowledging that the meeting will not produce immediate results but may lay the groundwork for future diplomatic efforts. Both the U.S. and Russia appear to be in a position where they are not ready to make the concessions necessary to end the war. As the summit approaches, the administration is prepared to let Trump’s instincts guide the next steps in a complex and uncertain diplomatic landscape.

Source:

[1] White House doesn't expect Trump-Putin summit to end ... (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/trump-putin-summit-no-peace-and-trade-deals/)

[2] White House tempers ceasefire hopes ahead of Trump ... (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-13/white-house-tempers-ceasefire-hopes-as-russia-advances/105645732)

[3] Trump, Vance to meet virtually with Zelenskyy ahead of Putin ... (https://abcnews.go.com/International/zelenskyy-putin-preparing-end-war-despite-trump-summit/story?id=124567946)

[4] 'Trusting Trump's instincts': White House sets modest ... (https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/12/donald-trump-instincts-white-house-putin-summit-00504648)

[5] Ukraine, sidelined in Trump-Putin summit, fights Russian ... (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sidelined-trump-putin-summit-fights-russian-grab-more-territory-2025-08-12/)

[7] Will Trump get played by Putin? Europe is worried (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5449141-trump-criticizes-ukraine-president/)

[8] Russia Makes Sudden Battlefield Advance Ahead of Talks (https://time.com/7309066/russia-ukraine-war-advance-summit-putin-trump/)

[10] White House is already downplaying Trump-Putin meeting ... (https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-putin-alaska-meeting-ukraine-russia-b2806352.html)