Trump Organization's Vietnam Gambit: Billions at Stake Amid Tariff Storm

The Trump Organization, the family business of former U.S. President Donald Trump, is making a bold move into Vietnam with multi-billion-dollar investments in golf courses, hotels, and real estate projects. This ambitious venture comes at a time when the Southeast Asian nation faces potential U.S. tariffs due to its significant trade surplus with the United States. The first project, valued at $1.5 billion, is set to break ground in May 2025, just weeks after the Trump administration's anticipated decision on "reciprocal tariffs" on unspecified countries with trade imbalances.

The Trump Organization's investment strategy in Vietnam aligns with the country's current economic policies and trade agreements, particularly in light of potential U.S. tariffs. Vietnam has pledged to increase imports from the U.S., cut duties, and reduce non-tariff barriers to mitigate the risk of retaliatory tariffs. The Trump Organization's projects, which include high-end golf courses and residential complexes, are expected to create jobs and stimulate local economic activity, contributing to a more balanced trade relationship.

However, the Trump Organization faces significant risks due to Vietnam's restrictions on foreign property ownership. Foreigners can only own property on a long-term leasehold basis, typically for 50 to 70 years, and are restricted from owning more than 30% of the space in apartments and condos. This limitation could affect the Trump Organization's ability to fully control and develop its projects.

The Vietnamese real estate market has also experienced a downturn due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Evergrande default, which has led to a liquidity crisis for many real estate companies. This could affect the Trump Organization's ability to secure financing and complete its projects on time.

Despite these risks, there are potential benefits from the country's growing economy, high profitability, and government support. Vietnam's economy has been growing rapidly, with a growth rate of 8.4% per year, and the profitability coefficient of housing in Hanoi reaches 7%. The Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has shown strong support for the Trump Organization's projects, pledging to expedite the $1.5 billion project in Hung Yen Province.

The Trump Organization's investment in Vietnam is a high-stakes gamble that could pay off handsomely if the country's economic growth continues and the trade environment remains stable. However, the risks associated with foreign property ownership restrictions and the current economic climate could pose significant challenges for the organization. The Trump Organization will need to carefully navigate these challenges to maximize the benefits of its investments in Vietnam.