Trump Nominations Bet: Polymarket Users Predict Crypto's Future

Polymarket users have generated a significant trading volume of $16.5 million on the platform, betting on the confirmation of several of President Trump's nominations by the U.S. Senate. The prediction market, built on Polygon, has seen intense activity around a market titled "Which Trump picks will be confirmed?"

So far, users have accurately predicted the Senate confirmation of pro-crypto hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. This key position could have a significant impact on crypto-related privacy debates, including cases like Tornado Cash. Additionally, users have placed bets on several other confirmations, although notable crypto-focused nominees, such as Paul Atkins for Securities and Exchange Commission chair, were not included in the list.

The on-chain prediction market has gained popularity in recent years, allowing users to bet on various outcomes, including political elections. Last year, Polymarket users accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, while traditional polls were reportedly skewed. Bloomberg even integrated Polymarket data into its election terminal.

Despite allegations of violating U.S. laws, neither Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan nor the platform has been indicted by the Department of Justice. The platform remains one of the largest blockchain-based prediction markets and a source of real-world social sentiment data. However, it is not regulated in the U.S. and does not allow Americans to use its services.