Trump's Mining Gamble: Copper, Critical Minerals, and the Race Against China

The Trump administration’s March 2025 executive order to fast-track permits for 10 critical mining projects—including Rio Tinto’s $6.7 billion Resolution Copper mine in Arizona—marks a bold pivot toward U.S. mineral independence. By leveraging the FAST-41 permitting initiative and declaring a national emergency to boost domestic production, the White House aims to reduce reliance on foreign minerals, particularly those controlled by China. For investors, this policy shift presents both opportunities and risks in a sector pivotal to defense, renewable energy, and high-tech manufacturing.

The Projects: Copper at the Core of the Strategy

The Resolution Copper mine, a joint venture between Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP), sits atop one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits. If permitted, it could supply 25% of U.S. copper demand for two decades, producing 40 billion pounds of copper over its lifespan. The mine’s block-cave technology aims to minimize environmental disruption, though its fate hinges on resolving legal challenges from tribal groups like the San Carlos Apache, who argue it would destroy sacred lands.

Other fast-tracked projects include:
- Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project (ID): A key source of antimony, a mineral critical for defense applications.
- Albemarle’s Kings Mountain lithium project (NC): Targeting lithium for EV batteries with high-grade ore (1.55% Li₂O).
- Warrior Met Coal’s Alabama metallurgical coal operations: Supporting domestic steel production.

The initiative also includes South32’s Hermosa zinc-manganese project in Arizona, previously fast-tracked under Biden but now part of Trump’s expanded list.

Policy and Strategy: FAST-41 and the Defense Production Act

The FAST-41 program, launched in 2015 to streamline infrastructure permits, is being weaponized to accelerate mineral projects. Under the executive order, federal agencies must prioritize mineral production on federal lands, reprioritizing land use to favor mining over other activities. The Defense Production Act (DPA) grants the administration authority to override regulatory delays, compressing permitting timelines from 7–10 years to 3–5 years.

A critical minerals fund, backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, will provide loans and equity to support projects. The order also mandates agencies to compile lists of mineral projects with submitted applications, ensuring transparency and accountability.

Economic Impact: Jobs, GDP, and Energy Dominance

The administration projects the 10 projects will create 15,000 direct jobs and generate a $24 billion regional economic boost over a decade. Resolution Copper alone could contribute up to $1 billion annually to Arizona’s economy.

Copper’s strategic importance is underscored by its role in renewable energy infrastructure—each wind turbine requires 4–6 tons of copper. With global demand for EV batteries expected to surge, domestic production could stabilize prices and reduce reliance on imports.

Risks: Legal Battles and Environmental Concerns

Despite the economic promise, legal and environmental hurdles loom large. The San Carlos Apache Tribe’s Supreme Court challenge to the Resolution Copper land swap, coupled with lawsuits from groups like the Center for Biological Diversity, could delay or derail the project.

Environmental safeguards remain in place, but critics argue that procedural streamlining risks undermining protections. Projects must still comply with the Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act, but modern practices like dry-stack tailings and community benefit agreements are now mandates.

Geopolitical Stakes: Countering China’s Mineral Dominance

The U.S. imports over 50% of its nonfuel minerals and 100% of 15 critical minerals, including antimony and rare earth elements. China’s near-monopoly on rare earth processing (90% of global capacity) poses risks to defense systems and EV supply chains.

Trump’s initiative aligns with global trends, such as the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, to diversify supply chains. International partnerships, including a U.S.-Ukraine deal for titanium and talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo for cobalt, complement domestic efforts.

Market Implications: Winners and Losers

• Mining Majors: Rio Tinto and BHP stand to gain most from Resolution Copper’s approval. Albemarle (ALB) saw a 7% stock surge post-announcement, reflecting investor optimism about lithium projects.
• Equipment Suppliers: Companies like Caterpillar (CAT) and Joy Global (JOY) could benefit from increased mining activity.
• Commodity Prices: Analysts project lithium prices could drop 15–20% by 2030 due to domestic production, while copper prices may stabilize.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Gamble

Trump’s fast-tracking initiative is a calculated bet on U.S. mineral self-sufficiency, with the potential to reshape global supply chains and bolster national security. The Resolution Copper mine alone represents a $6.7 billion investment in domestic infrastructure—a stark contrast to China’s dominance in critical minerals.

However, success hinges on navigating legal and environmental minefields. If the Supreme Court upholds the land swap, Resolution Copper could become operational by the late 2020s, delivering on its economic promises. Should legal challenges persist, delays could erode investor confidence and prolong reliance on foreign imports.

For investors, the sector offers asymmetric upside:
- Long-term plays: Rio Tinto (RIO) and Albemarle (ALB) are positioned to benefit from strategic projects.
- ETFs: The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) or Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) provide diversified exposure.

The stakes are clear: In a world where minerals are the new oil, the U.S. is doubling down on its domestic reserves. The question now is whether this gamble will yield copper dividends—or become a costly hole in the ground.