Trump's Middle East Tour Secures $13 Trillion in Investment Pledges, Feasibility Uncertain

During his recent Middle East tour, President Trump was greeted with staggering investment pledges from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both of which promised tens of billions of dollars in investments to the United States. However, the feasibility of these commitments remains uncertain.

Trump's four-day visit began in Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Salman initially pledged an additional 600 billion dollars in U.S. investments over four years. Trump later claimed this figure could reach 1 trillion dollars. The Crown Prince also expressed his commitment to achieving this 1 trillion dollar investment target in the U.S.

At a Saudi-U.S. investment forum, Trump proudly stated, "Look at what previous presidents have done; sometimes they couldn't secure 1 trillion dollars in investments over several years, but we managed to do it in just two months."

In Qatar, Trump received an even larger package. The White House announced that Trump had signed agreements aimed at facilitating at least 12 trillion dollars in "economic exchanges," including a 200 billion dollar order from Qatar Airways for 160 Boeing commercial aircraft.

However, the authenticity of these figures is questionable. A closer examination reveals a significant gap between the economic and fiscal capabilities of Gulf countries and the promised investments. Saudi Arabia's GDP is slightly above 1 trillion dollars, while Qatar's GDP is around 200 billion dollars. Fluctuations in oil prices could further jeopardize the realization of these commitments.

The economic reality behind these sky-high pledges is stark. Saudi Arabia's GDP is only slightly higher than 1 trillion dollars, making its economy smaller than that of the Netherlands. On a per capita basis, Saudi Arabia is comparable to Portugal. Trump's claimed 1 trillion dollar investment is nearly equivalent to Saudi Arabia's entire GDP, raising doubts about its feasibility.

Qatar's GDP is even smaller, at around 200 billion dollars, making the 12 trillion dollar figure seem even more unrealistic. Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices are eroding the fiscal foundations of these countries.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of 96 dollars per barrel to balance its budget. This means that Saudi Arabia can only maintain its comprehensive welfare system and control political discontent if oil prices remain at this level. However, the current oil price is around 60 dollars per barrel, forcing Saudi Arabia to implement austerity measures. If oil prices fall to 50 dollars or lower, Saudi Arabia could face a slow crisis, ultimately threatening its economic model.

Under Trump's transactional foreign policy, Gulf countries have significant leverage to offer, and they have clear objectives. For Saudi Arabia, the primary goal is "security, security, and security." Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are seeking U.S. security commitments to ensure stability in the region. Last year, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia nearly finalized a landmark defense and trade agreement, but negotiations stalled due to Saudi Arabia's insistence that Israel should commit to paving the way for a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia also seeks U.S. cooperation in developing its civilian nuclear program, but concerns about nuclear proliferation have arisen due to Saudi Arabia's insistence on conducting uranium enrichment domestically. White House support for Saudi Arabia's nuclear program could result in lucrative contracts for U.S. companies.

The United Arab Emirates views investment as a core strategy for deepening its relationship with the U.S. As one of the wealthiest countries per capita, the UAE has pledged tens of billions of dollars in U.S. investments. In March, the UAE announced a 14 trillion dollar investment plan over 10 years, focusing on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy.

The UAE's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, stated, "The UAE sees a unique opportunity to make significant contributions in the fields of artificial intelligence and advanced technology." However, achieving the goal of becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence by 2031 would be difficult without the support of advanced U.S. microchips.

Qatar has the most formal security cooperation with the U.S., hosting the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. As a skilled mediator, Qatar has actively engaged in various hotspot issues, from the Gaza conflict to Afghan peace talks, aiming to enhance its geopolitical value in Washington.

Hassan Al-Hassan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted, "Gulf countries view mediation as a tool to gain influence and prestige. They have successfully leveraged this role to become indispensable partners in Trump's political agenda."