TRUMP Memecoin Plummets 10.36% Amid U.S. Tariff Announcement

TRUMP, a Solana-based memecoin launched by former U.S. President Donald Trump, experienced a significant drop of 10.36% over the past 24 hours, positioning it as one of the top losers among all digital assets by market capitalization. This decline comes on the heels of the formal announcement of comprehensive new U.S. tariffs, which have unsettled markets and heightened perceived recession risks.

The memecoin is currently trading at $9.29, marking a nearly 19.4% decrease over the past week and a 28.84% decline over the past month. Its market capitalization stands at $1.86 billion. The token's value is now 87.63% below its all-time high of $75.27, which was reached on January 19, 2025.

The downturn in TRUMP's value coincides with a shift in macroeconomic sentiment. The probability of a U.S. recession this year surged from 42% to 52% overnight following the tariff announcement, as indicated by Polymarket’s prediction market. This increase in recession risk is attributed to concerns that the blanket 10% tariff on all imports, along with additional country-specific penalties, could elevate input costs across key sectors, thereby pressuring both consumers and corporate earnings.

On-chain metrics suggest deteriorating conditions for TRUMP holders. According to IntoTheBlock data, only 1% of addresses are currently in profit at the prevailing price. The token exhibits a 0.47 correlation with Bitcoin, indicating partial exposure to broader market trends, although recent price action has diverged significantly. Concentration remains high, with 77% of the circulating supply held by large addresses, most of which are affiliated with entities tied to Trump, including CIC Digital LLC. No large transactions over $100,000 were recorded in the past week, and network growth was flat at 0.05%. Telegram membership declined by 3.82% over the same period, aligning with a “mostly bearish” signal classification across all tracked indicators.

The composition of holders reveals that 86% have held the token for between one and twelve months, with only 13% classified as long-term holders. This skew toward medium-term speculative positions raises the probability of continued selling pressure amid uncertainty.

The Trump memecoin was launched in early 2025 amidst a surge in politically themed digital assets and quickly reached a $24 billion valuation on its first day of trading. The initial spike was driven by Trump’s direct social media promotion and association with the “Make America Great Again” branding, which energized speculative traders and supporters. However, the token’s utility remains undefined beyond its role as a political meme and fundraising tool. The lack of transparent governance and concerns around centralized holdings have raised skepticism within parts of the crypto community.

The recent tariff announcement introduced additional volatility into a market already facing macro headwinds. While major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also struggled, meme tokens and lower-liquidity assets have experienced sharper corrections as risk premiums widen. According to IntoTheBlock, TRUMP’s transaction demographics skew slightly westward, with 53% of activity originating from Western jurisdictions. This means 47% of trade in the official U.S. President’s memecoin occurs outside the country in Eastern countries.

As the tariff policy begins to be implemented, further market repricing may occur across politically exposed assets. For now, TRUMP’s decline reflects a broader risk-off move as investors digest both the potential inflationary impact of the trade realignment and the possibility of economic contraction within the next three quarters.