Trump Intensifies China Focus Amid Trade Tensions

President Trump is intensifying his focus on China, with a pivotal visit to the region planned, accompanied by corporate executives. This move comes as the administration grapples with the complexities of its trade policies and the evolving economic landscape. The visit is seen as a strategic effort to address the ongoing trade tensions and explore new economic opportunities.

Trump's approach to China has been characterized by a hardline stance, with the administration backing away from extending the 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs. This decision underscores the administration's commitment to its trade agenda, despite the looming deadline and the potential for further escalation. The recent trade deal with Vietnam serves as a clear signal of where US tariffs on Chinese goods might ultimately land, as talks between the two nations continue.

The administration's "move fast and break things" approach has had a significant impact on its China policy, undermining some of its own goals. This strategy has led to aid cuts and tariff chaos, complicating efforts to achieve a balanced and effective trade policy. The re-election of Trump has given investors globally a wake-up call, with emerging markets poised to benefit from the administration's policies.

Trump's foreign policy has seen some modest gains, including a peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, NATO spending pledges, an India-Pakistan cease-fire deal, and multiple economic deals in the Middle East. However, the administration's record remains mixed, with no clear outcomes from trade wars and uncertainty about the budget plan. The Middle East continues to be a focal point, with the upcoming meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expected to address lingering questions about Iran's nuclear program and the Gaza war.

The administration's foreign policy achievements include a mineral wealth deal with Ukraine, which gives the US access to critical minerals and natural resources. However, the balance in Trump's overall foreign policy ledger remains very mixed, with the president falling short on some of his big aspirations, including ending Russia's war against Ukraine and achieving clear outcomes from trade wars. The administration's budget plan, which includes additional defense spending and increased funding for immigration measures, is not solely about domestic politics and has implications for foreign policy as well.

The Middle East continues to present significant challenges, with the Iran and Israel-Palestine issues remaining unresolved. The administration's policy in the region is in a state of limbo, with the upcoming meeting between Trump and Netanyahu potentially pivotal. The prospects for additional rounds of diplomacy with Iran seem dimmer than the chances of further conflict, while the Gaza war continues to take a heavy toll. The administration's poor record in achieving major diplomatic outcomes on Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian front does not bode well for genuine, lasting progress ahead.