Trump's Impact on Tesla: A 40% Profit Wipeout?

As the dust settles on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, investors are grappling with the potential implications of a Trump administration on the electric vehicle (EV) industry, with Tesla (TSLA) at the forefront of concerns. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman recently warned that Trump's policies could wipe out 40% of Tesla's profits, raising questions about the company's future prospects.

Tesla's stock price has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years, with the company's market capitalization soaring to over $1 trillion in 2024. However, the stock has also experienced significant volatility, with a 6% decline in shares following a less-than-stellar Q4 sales performance. JPMorgan's Brinkman believes that the profitability of Tesla could be severely impacted under the second Trump administration, with a potential 40% decrease in earnings.



Trump's plans to do away with EV tax credits and subsidies have raised concerns about the affordability of Tesla's vehicles for consumers. The company's first-ever annual decline in vehicle sales, with approximately 1.79 million cars sold in 2024, highlights the broader slowdown in the EV market as consumers shift towards more economical hybrids. Brinkman expressed doubt about Tesla's future prospects, stating that the company does not seem poised to dominate the global auto industry during the transition to electrification.

The potential elimination of EV tax credits and subsidies under the Trump administration could further exacerbate Tesla's challenges. Government subsidies constitute a significant part of Tesla's revenue, and the loss of these incentives could lead to a decrease in sales and profitability. The shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable hybrids could also impact Tesla's market share, as seen in the broader slowdown of the EV market.



Despite these challenges, Tesla's unmatched scale, longer history of making profitable EVs, and potential benefits from Trump's policies could help maintain its competitive position in the global auto industry. The company's ability to navigate these changes and maintain its market position will be crucial in the coming years. As investors await further developments, one thing is clear: the EV industry is at a crossroads, and Tesla's future hangs in the balance.

In conclusion, the potential impact of a Trump administration on Tesla's profitability is a significant concern for investors. The company's ability to adapt to regulatory changes, shifts in consumer preferences, and maintain its competitive edge in the EV and AV markets will be crucial in determining its long-term growth prospects. As the dust settles on the 2024 election, all eyes are on Tesla and the EV industry as they brace for the potential implications of a Trump presidency.