Trump's Immigration Policy Shifts Leave Industries in Chaos

Farmers, cattle ranchers, and hospitality managers experienced a rollercoaster of emotions last week as President Donald Trump initially ordered a pause on immigration raids, only to reverse the decision shortly after. The abrupt change in policy left these industries in a state of uncertainty and fear, with workers worried about their job security and employers struggling to plan for the future.

Initially, there was a sense of relief among these industries when Trump announced a pause on immigration raids. Rebecca Shi, CEO of the American Business Immigration Coalition, stated that there was finally a sense of calm. However, that respite was short-lived. On Wednesday, Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Tricia McLaughlin declared that there would be no safe spaces for industries that harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine immigration enforcement efforts. This flip-flop left businesses baffled and employees once again in a state of fear and worry.

The crackdown on immigration intensified a few weeks ago when Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, gave the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement a quota of 3,000 arrests a day, up from 650 a day in the first five months of Trump’s second term. This sudden increase in ICE activity disrupted various industries, with farmers and ranchers reporting ICE agents on their properties and hospitality managers dealing with workers calling out of shifts due to fear of being targeted.

One New Mexico dairy was left with just 20 workers after an ICE raid, down from 55. The executive director of the Dairy Producers of New Mexico, Beverly Idsinga, highlighted the challenges this poses, stating that cows need to be milked and fed twice a day, and the reduced workforce makes it difficult to maintain these routines. Similarly, Claudio Gonzalez, a chef at Izakaya Gazen in Los Angeles, reported that many of his Hispanic workers have been too scared to work their shifts due to fears of being targeted by ICE.

In some regions, the problem isn't just ICE raids but also rumors of impending raids. During cherry-harvesting time in Washington state, many foreign-born workers are staying away from the orchards after hearing reports of impending immigration raids. Jon Folden, orchard manager for the farm cooperative Blue Bird, reported that an operation that usually employs 150 pickers is down to 20 due to these rumors.

Jennie Murray, CEO of the advocacy group National Immigration Forum, highlighted the fear among immigrant parents who worry about their workplaces being raided and being hauled off by ICE while their kids are in school. This fear has led some parents to question whether they should show up for work, fearing that their children might be left without a parent to raise them.

The horror stories from these industries were conveyed to Trump, members of his administration, and lawmakers in Congress by business advocacy and immigration reform groups. Last Thursday, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that the aggressive immigration policy is taking away good, long-time workers from farmers and the hotel and leisure business, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.

This situation highlights the tension between Trump's political agenda and economic reality. With U.S. unemployment low, many businesses are desperate for workers, and immigration provides them. Foreign-born workers made up less than 19% of employed workers in the United States but accounted for nearly 24% of jobs preparing and serving food and 38% of jobs in farming, fishing, and forestry.

Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, emphasized that those pushing for these raids have no idea how farms operate. The uncertainty around immigration policy is weighing heavily on businesses and the economy, making it difficult for them to plan ahead and operate efficiently. Patrick Murphy, chief investment officer at the Florida building firm Coastal Construction, highlighted that the sudden crackdowns or raids slow timelines, drive up costs, and make it harder to plan ahead. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, added that the immigration policy and the economic policy are not lining up at all, which goes against other economic objectives the administration might have.