Trump's Executive Order Establishes Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, 50% Chance of National Reserve
On March 6, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. This move marked a significant step in integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial framework. The reserve currently manages Bitcoin obtained through asset forfeitures in criminal and civil cases, but speculation is rising around a broader Trump Bitcoin Reserves plan that mirrors the structure of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Prediction market Kalshi indicates a 50% probability that Trump will establish a National Bitcoin Reserve this year. This reserve would contain Bitcoin not acquired through confiscation and potentially include other cryptocurrencies. The Kalshi contract requires the reserve to be fully functional and operational, not just announced in concept. Kalshi’s data shows fluctuating sentiment, with a 57.2% probability at the start of 2025, a 41.2% low on January 9, and a 70.6% peak on March 6 following Trump’s executive order.
Trump’s Bitcoin and crypto policy moves have been strategic and well-timed. In July 2024, he announced a plan for a Bitcoin Reserve during his campaign. Following his victory in the November 2024 U.S. Presidential election, he promised pro-crypto cabinet members. In December 2024, he planned the nomination of Paul S. Atkins as SEC chair, and in January 2025, he formed a crypto regulation task force via the SEC. These steps culminated in the March 2025 Executive Order to form the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
If Trump follows through with a fully operational National Bitcoin Reserve, it could signal a historic policy shift, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic, sovereign digital asset. Such a move would enhance investor trust in U.S. crypto policies, accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, and signal America’s leadership in global digital finance. However, the outcome hinges on execution, political alignment, and international response.
