Trump-Era Fed Credit Expansion Could Push Bitcoin to $3.4M by 2028

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has outlined a bold projection for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential surge to $3.4 million by 2028. The prediction is rooted in a model that links Bitcoin’s price to anticipated U.S. monetary policy shifts under a hypothetical second Trump administration. Hayes posits that the implementation of yield curve control (YCC) by the Federal Reserve could trigger massive credit expansion, with combined Fed and commercial banking credit growth reaching $15.229 trillion through 2028Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028^[1]. This scenario, he argues, would drive Bitcoin’s price higher as a hedge against inflationary fiat expansionBitcoin at $3.4M? Hayes Says Yes, But $1M Is the Safer Target^[3].

Hayes’ analysis hinges on the Fed purchasing approximately 50% of new Treasury debt issuance while commercial banks expand credit by $7.569 trillion during Trump’s remaining termArthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028^[1]. The model assumes a historical correlation between Bitcoin’s price and credit growth, with a 0.19% increase in BTC value for every dollar of new credit createdBitcoin to $3.4 Million? Hayes Ties Trump’s Yield Curve Control to ...^[7]. Applying this metric to projected credit expansion, Hayes calculates a $3.4 million price target for Bitcoin by 2028. While he acknowledges the speculative nature of the figure, he emphasizes the directional certainty: Bitcoin’s deflationary supply model positions it to outperform traditional assets during periods of monetary inflationBitcoin at $3.4M? Hayes Says Yes, But $1M Is the Safer Target^[3].

The prediction also incorporates geopolitical and institutional dynamics. Hayes envisions a Trump administration reshaping the Federal Reserve by installing allies on the Board of Governors and regional bank leadership, enabling control over short-term interest rates and monetary policyBitcoin Could Hit $3.4M by 2028 Under Fed Yield Curve Control …^[6]. This strategy, he argues, would facilitate the purchase of Treasury debt not absorbed by private markets, effectively monetizing deficits and fueling liquidity. The model further anticipates a shift in global liquidity, with stablecoin infrastructure absorbing $34 trillion in Eurodollar and European deposits by redirecting foreign banking flowsArthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028^[1]. Such a move, Hayes suggests, would create price-insensitive demand for U.S. Treasury bills, reinforcing the Treasury’s influence over interest ratesArthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028^[1].

Despite his long-term optimism, Hayes has taken a pragmatic approach in the short term. He recently exited his position in the HYPE token, securing a $823,000 profitArthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028^[1], and has set a near-term target of $250,000 for Bitcoin by year-end 2025Arthur Hayes Sees $3.4M BTC if Fed Prints Trillions^[5]. This aligns with his broader thesis that liquidity expansion—driven by Fed rate cuts and fiscal stimulus—will elevate Bitcoin’s demandArthur Hayes Sees $3.4M BTC if Fed Prints Trillions^[5]. Analysts have noted Bitcoin’s historical lag behind gold in liquidity-driven cycles, with BTC typically following gold’s price trends with a 100–150-day delayWhat Gold's New Highs Mean for Bitcoin and Global Liquidity^[9]. If gold’s recent rally to record highs continues, Bitcoin could see a corresponding surge within monthsWhat Gold's New Highs Mean for Bitcoin and Global Liquidity^[9].

Hayes’ model has sparked debate among market participants. While some, like Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, question the feasibility of liquidity-driven price projectionsBitcoin to $3.4 Million? Hayes Ties Trump’s Yield Curve Control to ...^[7], others highlight the plausibility of a Trump-led monetary overhaul mirroring WWII-era policiesBitcoin Lags Gold as Global Liquidity Hits Record High^[8]. Critics also debate whether Bitcoin and gold will compete or complement each other as safe-haven assets. Nonetheless, Hayes’ analysis underscores Bitcoin’s role as a scarcity asset in an era of rising global liquidity and fiscal risk. With the U.S. M2 money supply reaching record levels and the dollar’s reserve share declining, both Bitcoin and gold are increasingly viewed as hedges against systemic devaluation.