Trump's Energy Agenda: Reshaping Asia's Gas Supplies

President Donald Trump's energy policies, particularly his focus on boosting U.S. LNG exports, are set to have significant implications for Asia's energy market dynamics and geopolitics. With the U.S. emerging as the world's leading LNG exporter, the expansion of LNG exports will increase competition in the global LNG market, driving down prices and enhancing energy security for Asian countries. However, Trump's proposed tariffs on energy imports from China and other countries could lead to retaliation, potentially targeting U.S. energy exports and altering trade dynamics in the region.



Trump's administration has prioritized increasing U.S. LNG exports, with a significant share destined for Asia. In 2023, Asia accounted for 26% of U.S. LNG exports (U.S. Energy Information Administration). Increased exports could enhance U.S. influence in the region, potentially altering trade dynamics and market opportunities for competitors. For instance, Australia, another major LNG exporter, might face increased competition from the U.S.

Trump's proposed tariffs on energy imports from China and other countries could lead to retaliation, potentially targeting U.S. energy exports. In 2018, China reacted to Trump's tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy exports (U.S. Energy Information Administration). A tit-for-tat trade war could alter trade in the Asia-Pacific region, opening up new market opportunities for competitors.

Countries with a larger share of external demand in GDP growth, such as China, Korea, and Vietnam, will be more exposed to Trump's 'America First' trade policy. These countries are also more dependent on external demand and have a large goods trade surplus with the U.S. (CEIC). For example, Vietnam's steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. were 0.3% of its GDP in 2024, making it the most exposed country in Asia to U.S. tariffs on these metals (International Trade Administration).

Trump's rollback of EV incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could deter U.S. investments in Indonesian nickel smelters and battery plants, potentially disrupting the country's large ecosystem for electronic vehicles (CEIC). This could impact Indonesia's trade relations with the U.S. and other countries in the region.



In conclusion, Trump's energy policies, particularly his focus on increasing U.S. LNG exports and rolling back climate-focused regulations, have significant geopolitical implications for Asia. Increased competition in the LNG market, trade tensions, and the potential impact on the global energy transition are some of the key factors to consider. The diverse energy needs and trade relationships of Asian countries make them particularly vulnerable to these changes, with potential implications for energy security, trade dynamics, and the pace of the energy transition.