Trump's Deportation Plans: A Real Estate Expert's Perspective

As the 2024 US presidential elections approach, immigration has emerged as a critical issue for voters. The two main candidates, former President Donald Trump (a Republican) and Vice President Kamala Harris (a Democrat), have vastly different stances on immigration policies. Trump, in particular, has promised to 'begin the largest deportation operation in American history' if re-elected. This article explores the potential impacts of Trump's deportation plans on the US housing market, as discussed by a real estate expert.



The Construction Workforce and Housing Supply

Undocumented immigrants make up a significant portion of the construction workforce, with estimates ranging from 23% to over 50% in some states. If Trump's deportation plans are carried out, it could lead to a substantial gap in this workforce, exacerbating the existing labor shortage in the construction industry. According to the Center for American Progress, there were 282,000 construction jobs open as of September 2023, and mass deportations could further exacerbate this labor shortage.

The housing shortage in the United States has been steadily growing worse since the Great Recession, with an estimated shortage of 4.5 million homes in 2022. Real estate company Zillow estimates that the shortage will increase to 4.5 million homes in 2022. The existing shortage in the U.S. home supply could quickly get worse due to the loss of skilled construction labor and a disruption in new housing starts, which would inevitably put upward pressure on home prices.

Economic Consequences on the Housing Market

Trump's immigration policies, particularly his plan for mass deportations, could have significant economic consequences on the housing market. The potential impacts include:

1. Labor Shortages in Construction: Mass deportations could lead to a substantial gap in the construction workforce, exacerbating the existing labor shortage and making it more difficult and expensive to build new homes.
2. Increased Construction Costs: With a reduced workforce, construction companies may have to pay higher wages to attract and retain workers, leading to increased construction costs. This, in turn, could slow down new housing starts and drive up home prices.
3. Housing Supply Deficit: The construction industry is already struggling to keep up with demand due to a shortage of skilled workers and rising material costs. Mass deportations could further exacerbate this issue, leading to a worsening housing supply deficit. If supply remains low and demand remains high, home prices will continue to climb.
4. Economic Impact on Related Industries: The construction industry is not the only sector that could be affected. Related industries, such as home improvement and real estate, could also feel the impact of labor shortages and increased construction costs.
5. Potential Recession: Some economists warn that Trump's immigration policies, including mass deportations, could lead to a recession. This is due to the potential disruption in the labor market and the housing market, which could have ripple effects throughout the economy.



The Real Estate Expert's Perspective

A real estate expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, shared their thoughts on the potential impacts of Trump's deportation plans on the housing market. "If Trump follows through with his deportation plans, it could have a significant impact on the construction workforce and housing supply," they said. "The construction industry is already facing a labor shortage, and mass deportations could exacerbate this issue, leading to increased construction costs and a worsening housing supply deficit."

The expert also noted that the potential economic consequences on the housing market could be significant, with the potential for a recession due to the disruption in the labor market and the housing market. "It's going to hurt," they said. "But it's not too late to change course and focus on policies that will actually help the housing market and the economy."

In conclusion, Trump's deportation plans could have a significant impact on the US housing market, with potential consequences including labor shortages in the construction industry, increased construction costs, a worsening housing supply deficit, economic impact on related industries, and the potential for a recession. Real estate experts warn that these policies could 'hurt' the housing market and the economy, but it's not too late to change course and focus on policies that will actually help. As the 2024 US presidential elections approach, voters should consider the potential impacts of Trump's immigration policies on the housing market and the economy when casting their ballots.