Trump's Crypto Pardon Dilemma: SBF's Fraud Legacy vs. Political Leverage

Conservative activist Laura Loomer reignited speculation about a potential presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the disgraced founder of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, with a viral tweet claiming a "massive and well-funded" effort to lobby President Donald Trump for clemencyLaura Loomer Stokes Speculation Over Trump SBF Pardon: Is …^[1]. While the assertion has sparked partisan debates online, concrete evidence of such a campaign remains elusive. Bankman-Fried's parents, Stanford law professors Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, have reportedly explored clemency options, including strategy memos and legal consultations, but no direct contact with Trump's team has been confirmedLaura Loomer Stokes Speculation Over Trump SBF Pardon: Is …^[1].

The idea of a pardon has gained traction amid Trump's recent pardons of crypto figures. In March 2025, he commuted the sentences of Arthur Hayes and other BitMEX co-founders, who had pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy ActJim Cramer asks if Bankman-Fried could be next …^[3]. Earlier, he pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road founder, a move that crypto advocates hailed as a rebuke of harsh sentencing for digital-age crimesNo Ulbricht Treatment for SBF: Why a Pardon Is Unlikely^[7]. However, Bankman-Fried's case differs significantly: he faces a 25-year prison term for orchestrating a $9 billion fraud that collapsed FTX, leaving investors and employees with massive lossesFTX founder's parents hope Trump might get SBF out …^[5].

Prediction markets reflect skepticism about SBF's prospects. On Polymarket, the odds of a Trump pardon for Bankman-Fried stand at 3% as of April 2025, lagging behind names like Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who has a 9% chanceJim Cramer asks if Bankman-Fried could be next …^[3]. Legal experts cite structural barriers, including the absence of registered lobbying efforts under the Lobbying Disclosure Act. While pardon-related work can often be labeled "government relations" to avoid registration, no formal filings for Bankman-Fried have surfacedLaura Loomer Stokes Speculation Over Trump SBF Pardon: Is …^[1]. The Justice Department's 2025 clemency list also does not include himLaura Loomer Stokes Speculation Over Trump SBF Pardon: Is …^[1].

Bankman-Fried's political pivot has fueled the speculation. Once a major Democratic donor, he has recently criticized the Biden administration as "destructive" and aligned himself with Trump-friendly rhetoric, including praise for Elon Musk's "chainsaw approach" to budget cutsSam Bankman-Fried Lobby Effort Underway For Trump …^[4]. His prison interviews, including a high-profile appearance with Tucker Carlson, have framed his case as one of political persecution, echoing Trump's own grievances with Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over both his 2020 election subpoena case and Bankman-Fried's trialSam Bankman-Fried Lobby Effort Underway For Trump …^[4].

Yet, the former FTX CEO's political ties complicate his case. He donated $40 million to Democratic campaigns in 2022 and remains a polarizing figure in crypto circles, where many celebrate his conviction as justice for FTX's collapse. "The comparison to Ulbricht isn't straightforward," said William Livolsi, director of White Collar Support Group, noting that Bankman-Fried's fraud caused systemic harm unlike Ulbricht's Silk Road operations.

Trump's pardon power remains a wildcard. His 2025 clemency grants included 74 individuals, primarily tied to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot or anti-abortion activismClemency Grants by President Donald J. Trump (2025 …^[2]. Crypto advocates argue that Bankman-Fried's case could align with Trump's pro-industry stance, but lobbyists caution that the 's priorities are unpredictable. "The odds are slim," one anonymous crypto lobbyist told Decrypt, though they acknowledged Trump's history of favoring high-profile pardonsNo Ulbricht Treatment for SBF: Why a Pardon Is Unlikely^[7].

As the 2025 election approaches, the speculation underscores the intersection of cryptocurrency, politics, and the judiciary. Whether Bankman-Fried's clemency bid succeeds will depend on a mix of political calculus, public sentiment, and the erratic nature of Trump's pardon decisions-a scenario that leaves the crypto world watching closely.

---