Trump's Copper Tariffs Could Make Twin Metals the Next Gold Mine—Here's Why

The U.S. is in the throes of a copper crunch. With President Trump's proposed 50% tariff on imports set to reshape the industry, domestic projects like Chilean miner Antofagasta's Twin Metals in Minnesota are suddenly center stage. The Twin Metals venture—long stalled due to environmental opposition—now sits at the intersection of geopolitics, supply chain security, and Wall Street's hunger for hard assets. The question isn't just whether it will move forward, but whether investors should be positioning now for what could become a critical supply node in a tariff-driven era.

The Tariff Tipping Point

The Trump administration's tariff threat isn't just about trade wars—it's a strategic play to rebuild U.S. critical mineral independence. Copper, vital for everything from electric grids to EV batteries, is now a linchpin. The proposed 50% tariff on imports (pending final approval) has already sent prices soaring, with Comex futures jumping 13% since late June. The goal is clear: force a shift to domestic production to avoid reliance on Chile (53% of U.S. imports) and Canada.

For Antofagasta, this creates a golden angle. The Twin Metals project, which holds an estimated 1.1 billion pounds of copper and 150 million pounds of nickel, could become a crown jewel in a reshaped supply chain. But will the tariffs' ripple effects—higher costs for consumers, legal battles with trading partners—outweigh the strategic gains? The answer hinges on whether Twin Metals can finally get the green light.

The Environmental Hurdles

The project's path is littered with obstacles. Environmental groups like Save the Boundary Waters argue that sulfide mining near the pristine wilderness area threatens water quality and ecosystems. A Minnesota judge recently upheld a decision to deny mining permits, citing inadequate environmental reviews. Meanwhile, state regulators have demanded a full-scale environmental impact statement—a process that could take years.

But here's the twist: the Trump administration's 28-day environmental review directive (aimed at accelerating energy/minerals projects) could force a showdown. Federal regulators might override Minnesota's strict standards, creating a legal battle that could reach the Supreme Court. If the administration prevails, Twin Metals could leapfrog its competitors in the permitting pipeline.

Note: A rising correlation suggests investors are pricing in Twin Metals' potential.

Antofagasta's Playbook: A Long Game

Antofagasta isn't betting on a quick win. CEO Ivan Arriagada has been clear: Twin Metals is a multi-year project requiring “strategic patience.” The company's focus is twofold:
1. Leverage the Tariff Window: With global copper prices at record highs (and likely to rise further if tariffs bite), Twin Metals' reserves become a de facto hedge against supply shocks.
2. Align with U.S. Priorities: By positioning itself as a solution to national security concerns, Antofagasta can push for carveouts in trade deals or federal funding for infrastructure projects requiring domestic copper.

The risks are obvious. A prolonged legal battle could drain cash reserves, and if the tariffs are blocked in court (a real possibility given the July 31 appeal deadline), the project's economics collapse. But the upside is massive: a fully operational Twin Metals could supply 10% of U.S. copper needs, reducing reliance on Chile and Canada.

Investment Implications

For investors, the calculus is binary:
- Buy the rumor, sell the news? Antofagasta's stock has already rallied 20% YTD on tariff optimism. A definitive regulatory ruling—either for or against—could trigger volatility.
- Long-term thesis: If Twin Metals becomes operational by 2028 (the earliest plausible timeline), it could generate $1 billion+ in annual EBITDA. This makes Antofagasta's current valuation (P/E of 12x) a bargain relative to its peers.

Antofagasta's financial flexibility gives it room to invest in Twin Metals without over-leveraging.

Conclusion: A Risky, but Strategic Bet

Twin Metals isn't just a mine—it's a proxy for the U.S.'s ability to rebuild its critical mineral infrastructure. The tariffs have created a “now or never” moment for domestic projects, and Antofagasta is playing to win. While environmental and legal risks remain, the strategic value of a U.S. copper source in a tariff-wary world is undeniable. Investors with a multi-year horizon should consider a small position in Antofagasta now, with an eye on regulatory clarity by late 2025. For those who think supply chains are the next battleground, this could be the first skirmish.