Trump Coin Plummets 85% Amid Recession Fears, Crypto Market Struggles

The official Trump Coin (TRUMP), recently valued near $11.50, is currently experiencing a concerning short-term downtrend amidst broader struggles in the crypto market. Over the past month, TRUMP Coin has consistently reached lower highs and lower lows, indicating an increasing likelihood of a significant drop below $10.

Macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly the growing concern of a potential US recession, have significantly dampened risk appetite in recent weeks. This economic climate has led to a decline in Bitcoin's value, which has slipped from nearly $100,000 to the low-$80,000s. For TRUMP Coin, the situation has worsened, with the coin now down 85% from its January peak of around $76.

On-chain metrics reveal a substantial decline in interest towards the meme coin. Trading volumes have plummeted to a fraction of the tens of billions in daily volume seen post-launch. This reduced activity has contributed to the significant drop in TRUMP Coin's price. With macroeconomic uncertainties expected to persist or worsen, the risk of further value erosion for the meme coin remains high.

If the current downtrend continues, the TRUMP Coin price could fall to around $6 by mid-April. However, buying the dip at such levels comes with considerable risks. TRUMP Coin appears to have followed a classic pump-and-dump pattern, with an initial rapid rise benefiting insiders, followed by a massive price crash leaving late investors with substantial losses.

With over 650,000 holders, many are likely sitting on significant unrealized losses. Additionally, the 80% of the supply still held by Trump and insiders, which will be sold off over the next three years, poses a risk of inflation. Traders considering buying TRUMP Coin should be aware of the possibility that the meme coin may never fully recover and could eventually reach zero.

Despite these risks, the Trump brand's global influence and potential improvements in macroeconomic conditions could create a scenario where TRUMP Coin experiences a significant comeback. In an environment of improved macro conditions and increased liquidity, TRUMP Coin, with its narrative as the coin of the US President, could perform well.

While 10x gains from current levels are not impossible, the macroeconomic outlook suggests that conditions may worsen before improving. Therefore, TRUMP Coin holders should not expect an immediate recovery.