Trump's Coal Revival: A Misguided Effort to Revive a Dying Industry

On April 8, 2025, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at bolstering the struggling U.S. coal industry. The orders, which include efforts to save coal plants that were likely to be retired, direct Energy Secretary Chris Wright to determine whether coal used in steel production is a "critical mineral," and lift barriers to coal mining and prioritize coal leasing on U.S. lands, are a clear attempt to reverse the decline of coal in the U.S. energy market. However, these actions are at odds with the broader economic trends and market dynamics that have been driving the decline of coal over the past two decades.

The decline of coal in the U.S. energy market has been driven by a combination of factors, including cheaper power from natural gas and renewable energy, federal regulations, and public pressure to cut back on emissions. According to the Energy Information Administration, coal power in 2024 made up around 15% of US electricity generation for all sectors, down from more than 50% in 2001. The think tank Energy Innovation has calculated that 99 percent of the existing US coal fleet costs more to keep running than it would cost to retire the coal plants and replace them with solar, wind, and batteries.

Trump's executive orders, which include efforts to save coal plants that were likely to be retired, direct Energy Secretary Chris Wright to determine whether coal used in steel production is a "critical mineral," and lift barriers to coal mining and prioritize coal leasing on U.S. lands, are a clear attempt to reverse this trend. However, these actions are unlikely to succeed in the long term, as the economic realities of the energy market continue to favor natural gas and renewable energy sources.

The short-term impacts of Trump's policies on the U.S. energy market are likely to be mixed. On the one hand, the orders could potentially enhance grid reliability in the short term by keeping some coal plants operational. For instance, the Brandon Shores plant in Maryland, which was set to close due to uneconomical operations, will remain open to maintain grid reliability. On the other hand, the orders could lead to increased energy costs for consumers, as Maryland ratepayers will be forced to pay close to $1 billion to keep the Brandon Shores plant open while extra transmission is built to bolster the grid.

The long-term impacts of Trump's policies on the U.S. energy market are likely to be more negative. In the long term, the reliability of the grid could be compromised as coal plants continue to age and become less efficient. The average age of the current coal fleet is 53 years old, and no new coal plant has come online since 2013. Additionally, energy costs could increase as the U.S. continues to rely on aging coal infrastructure, and environmental regulations could be rolled back, potentially increasing emissions and health risks.

In conclusion, while Trump's policies may provide short-term benefits in terms of grid reliability, they are unlikely to succeed in the long term. The economic realities of the energy market continue to favor natural gas and renewable energy sources, and Trump's executive orders are unlikely to reverse this trend. As such, the U.S. coal industry is likely to continue its decline, despite Trump's efforts to revive it.