Trump Bill Adds $2.4 Trillion to US Debt Over Decade

President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, if passed, could significantly exacerbate the US debt crisis. The bill, which has already passed the House and is pending in the Senate, proposes a net addition of $2.4 trillion to the US debt over a decade. This is in addition to the already staggering debt of almost $37 trillion. The bill includes extended tax cuts, elimination of green energy incentives, tighter eligibility for Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and a major expansion of immigration enforcement. It also raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill would cut federal revenue by $3.67 trillion over a decade while reducing spending by only $1.25 trillion. This results in a net addition of $2.4 trillion to the debt. Another nonpartisan forecaster, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, added that when taking interest payments into account, the bill’s cost could rise to $3 trillion over a decade or to $5 trillion if temporary tax cuts were made permanent.

Some supporters of the bill argue that tax cuts would stimulate the economy and “pay for themselves.” However, the experience of the 2017 tax cuts showed that, even including positive economic effects, they had increased the federal deficit by almost $1.9 trillion over a decade, according to the CBO. The spiral of budget deficits and debt has already sucked in the US economy, and there is no credible plan to reverse it.

Some argue that the US will magically “grow its way out” of this problem. However, with Q1 2025 registering -0.3% real GDP growth, and the US Federal Reserve estimating the Q2 2025 growth at 3.8%, such a scenario remains unrealistic. Deficits are projected to exceed 7% of GDP for the remainder of Trump’s term, and that’s without a black swan event. This means that the only growth possible now is nominal.

In a debt crisis, governments have four tools: austerity, defaults, redistribution, and printing money. The first three are painful and politically costly. The fourth, printing and devaluation, is by far the most likely. It’s silent, opaque, and easily disguised as a stimulus. It also wipes out savers, bondholders, and anyone dependent on fiat. This is where Bitcoin enters the picture—not as a speculative trade, but as a monetary insurance policy against the US debt crisis.

If, or when, the US chooses to inflate its way out of debt, nominal Treasurys and cash will see their real value erode. Artificially suppressed interest rates and forced bond purchases by institutions could further drive real yields into negative territory. Bitcoin is engineered to resist this outcome. With its fixed supply and independence from government monetary policy, it offers what fiat cannot: a refuge from financial repression and currency debasement. However, not all Bitcoin exposure is equal. In a crisis scenario, when the government can justify financial repression in the name of “economic stability,” custodial risks are high. ETFs and any other custodial services may simply fail to honor redemptions. The only true protection comes from self-custody, cold storage, private keys, and full control.

So far, the Republican-controlled Congress hasn’t rejected a single Trump proposal, making the odds of the Big Beautiful Bill becoming law high. So is the likelihood of a full-blown debt crisis. In that world, hard assets in self-custody will matter more than ever.