Trump Announces Phased Ceasefire Between Israel Iran

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that a phased-in ceasefire between Israel and Iran is likely to end the 12-day conflict, validating the strategic decision of a devastating U.S. airstrike on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Trump declared on social media that a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE" had been agreed upon by both nations, although neither country immediately confirmed the announcement. The ceasefire is set to begin with Iran, followed by Israel 12 hours later, with both sides expected to remain peaceful and respectful. This phased approach could potentially end the war as early as Wednesday.

Trump emphasized the significance of the ceasefire, stating that the conflict could have lasted for years and devastated the entire Middle East. The announcement came after Iran attempted to retaliate against the U.S. airstrike with a missile strike aimed at a major U.S. military installation in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for providing early notice of the retaliation, which allowed for no harm to Americans and minimal damage. He expressed hope that Iran's reprisal had "gotten it all out of their ‘system’" and that this moment would lead to a de-escalation in the conflict.

The Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar marked Tehran’s first direct retaliation against the U.S. since Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The base, which houses around 8,000 U.S. troops, was targeted with 14 missiles, 13 of which were intercepted by U.S. air defense systems. Trump noted that one missile was allowed to pass as it was heading in a nonthreatening direction. Hours before the attack, the U.S. Embassy in Qatar issued an alert urging American citizens to shelter in place, and the Qatari government shut down its airspace.

Leon Panetta, a former CIA director and defense secretary, suggested that Iran's restrained response indicated that their ability to retaliate had been significantly impaired. He also noted that this could be a signal that Iran is not interested in escalating the conflict with either Israel or the United States. Trump's call for the U.S. and allied oil-producing nations to increase oil production to keep prices down came as global markets were assessing the impact of the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the tensions, oil prices had nearly returned to pre-conflict levels by Monday afternoon.

Iran's parliament had approved cutting off the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for global oil and gas, but it remains to be seen whether the national security council will implement this measure. Many energy industry analysts had been skeptical about Iran's willingness to fully close the strait, given the potential for retaliation and the disruption it would cause to global markets. The U.S. and its allies had previously pressured Russia with threats to its oil industry before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leading to Western oil companies pulling out and sanctions being imposed. However, Iran's lesser integration into the global economy makes it a different scenario.

Colby Connelly, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, cautioned that economic ties do not always prevent conflict, as evidenced by recent global events. Regarding Iran's future, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt downplayed Trump's comments about the potential for regime change in Iran. Trump had questioned the future of Iran's ruling theocracy, seemingly contradicting his administration's earlier calls for Tehran to resume negotiations and avoid escalation. Leavitt clarified that Trump's posture and the military posture had not changed, and that his comments were merely raising questions that many people around the world were asking.