Trump’s Ally PM Seeks to Anchor Albania in Europe: What to Watch

Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama, a political force in the Balkans for over two decades, has positioned himself as both a pragmatic ally of U.S. President Donald Trump and a strategic architect of his country’s European ambitions. As Albania’s economy navigates a slowing global landscape and its bid for EU membership gains momentum, investors must parse the interplay of Rama’s political calculus, transatlantic ties, and the financial stakes of infrastructure projects like the contentious Sazan development.

Political Alignment: Rama’s Trump Gambit

Rama’s alignment with Trump is transactional but high-stakes. While his domestic critics, notably opposition leader Sali Berisha, openly court Trump’s campaign strategists—including figures like Chris LaCivita and the disgraced Paul Manafort—Rama has forged direct ties to Trump’s inner circle. The most notable example is his partnership with Jared Kushner’s firm, Atlantic Incubation Partners LLC, which secured a 99-year lease to develop the Sazan island and Vjosa River delta. This $1.6 billion project, though mired in environmental controversy, symbolizes Rama’s ambition to leverage U.S. political capital for strategic infrastructure deals.

The Prime Minister’s public rhetoric further underscores his pro-Trump stance. In April 2025, Rama praised Trump as a “force for global stability,” framing his survival of the 2024 assassination attempt as a divine sign to “reform Europe.” Such messaging not only counters Berisha’s anti-corruption populism but also signals to Western investors that Albania remains open to American influence—a critical signal as the EU membership process drags on.

Economic Outlook: Growth Slows, Risks Rise

Albania’s economic trajectory in 2025 reflects broader regional challenges. The World Bank projects GDP growth to slow to 3.2%, down from an estimated 3.9% in 2024. This deceleration mirrors stagnation across the Western Balkans, where geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions have dampened momentum. The region’s growth is now forecast at just 3.2% in 2025, a sharp drop from earlier projections.

The World Bank warns of “downside risks” from trade fragmentation and financial volatility, particularly for small economies like Albania, which relies heavily on tourism and remittances. To counter this, Rama’s government is leaning on foreign direct investment (FDI) to fuel diversification. The EU’s recent Call for Expressions of Interest, targeting projects with at least €10 million in investment and 15% equity, offers a lifeline. Priority sectors—green energy, digital infrastructure, and sustainable tourism—are ripe for foreign capital, though execution risks remain.

The Sazan Project: Catalyst or Controversy?

The Sazan development, spearheaded by Kushner’s firm, epitomizes Albania’s FDI strategy. The project’s deepwater port and industrial zone aim to transform the island into a logistics hub for the Balkans, with potential exports of copper and hydropower. However, its environmental impact has sparked protests, and delays in securing permits and financing have cast doubt on its timeline.

Critics argue the deal’s terms—99 years of land control for a private U.S. firm—undermine Albania’s sovereignty. Yet for Rama, the project’s geopolitical symbolism outweighs these concerns. By aligning with Kushner, he signals to the EU and NATO that Albania is a reliable partner, even as corruption scandals plague his government.

EU Membership: A Long Haul, but Momentum Builds

While Albania’s formal EU accession remains distant, Brussels has stepped up support. The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, emphasizing private-sector integration into EU supply chains, aligns with Rama’s push for FDI. Commissioner Marta Kos’s focus on “transformation” via infrastructure and green initiatives underscores the region’s strategic importance to Europe’s security and economic stability.

Albania’s chance at EU membership hinges on tangible progress in governance and economic reform. The EU’s €10 million investment threshold for eligible projects creates a high bar, but it also incentivizes scalable, high-impact ventures. For investors, the Sazan project and similar initiatives offer entry points into a market hungry for modernization—but wary of political upheaval.

Conclusion: Weighing the Stakes

Albania in 2025 is a microcosm of the Balkans’ broader geopolitical and economic crossroads. Rama’s alignment with Trump’s orbit—through Kushner’s Sazan deal and rhetorical support—serves dual purposes: it secures U.S. goodwill while countering domestic rivals. However, his success hinges on translating political gambits into economic results.

With GDP growth slowing and FDI competition heating up, the key metrics to watch are:
1. Sazan’s progress: If the project secures permits and financing by mid-2026, it could unlock $1.6 billion in FDI and boost Albania’s port capacity.
2. EU investment uptake: The May 2025 deadline for the EU’s Call for Expressions of Interest will reveal how quickly capital flows into priority sectors.
3. Political stability: Berisha’s anti-corruption campaign could destabilize Rama’s grip on power, risking investor confidence.

For investors, the calculus is clear: Albania offers asymmetric growth opportunities in green energy and logistics—if the political and regulatory risks can be managed. The EU’s commitment to the region, coupled with Rama’s transatlantic gambit, makes this a watchlist-worthy frontier market in 2025.

In a region where “transformation” is the watchword, Albania’s fate—and Rama’s legacy—will be measured in the concrete and cables of projects like Sazan, not just in political rhetoric.