Trump's $5M Visa Plan: Debt Solution or Economic Time Bomb?

The U.S. national debt crisis has escalated to a critical juncture, with billionaire investor Ray Dalio warning of an impending "economic heart attack" as the country’s fiscal trajectory mirrors a dangerous debt spiral. In a series of public statements and interviews, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, highlighted the $37.5 trillion national debt and the widening gap between spending and revenue, which reached $7 trillion in 2025 versus $5 trillion in projected tax collections. The debt-to-GDP ratio, a key metric for assessing fiscal health, has surged to 123%, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasting deficits of $1.9 trillion in 2025 and $10.7 trillion in spending by 2035. Dalio emphasized that debt service payments now consume 3.9% of GDP, crowding out funding for critical priorities and creating a "supply-demand imbalance" in Treasury markets.

The growing reliance on issuing new debt to service existing obligations has sparked concerns about market confidence. Dalio noted that foreign investors have already signaled unease, with April 2025 data showing reduced demand for U.S. Treasuries. This trend aligns with broader global dynamics: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the U.S. and China are among the largest contributors to rising global debt, with their combined non-financial public and private debt-to-GDP ratios converging at 270%. Dalio likened the situation to a cardiac arrest scenario, where the U.S. could face a "financial trauma" if policymakers fail to act. He cited a 50% probability of such a crisis under current fiscal paths.

Amid these warnings, the Trump administration has introduced unconventional measures to address the debt. The "Gold Card" visa program, unveiled in September 2025, requires wealthy immigrants to pay $5 million for expedited residency and a path to citizenship. The initiative, which replaces the EB-5 visa program, aims to generate $100 billion in revenue for the Treasury. President Trump framed the plan as a solution to the $36.2 trillion debt, stating that selling 10 million Gold Cards could yield $50 trillion, with $15 trillion earmarked for deficit reduction. However, economists question the feasibility of this approach, noting that only 5.6 million individuals globally have a net worth exceeding $5 million. Additionally, legal hurdles and administrative complexities may limit the program’s effectiveness, with critics arguing it prioritizes wealth over equity in immigration policy.

Dalio’s analysis underscores the need for fiscal discipline akin to the 1990s, when bipartisan efforts balanced spending cuts and tax reforms to stabilize the economy. He advocates for a 4% adjustment in spending and taxation to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP, a level last achieved during the Clinton era. However, political polarization and the absence of a debt ceiling reform have hindered progress. The CBO projects that without significant changes, U.S. public debt will exceed 140% of GDP by 2030. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s role in quantitative easing—essentially printing money to sustain debt—risks eroding the dollar’s value, a concern Dalio has repeatedly raised.

The administration’s broader fiscal strategy includes aggressive tariffs and corporate tax cuts, but these measures face scrutiny. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which adds $3.4 trillion to deficits over a decade, exemplifies the tension between short-term economic growth and long-term sustainability. Dalio cautions that without structural reforms, the U.S. may face a "debt death spiral," where rising interest rates and declining investor confidence trigger a systemic collapse. The IMF echoes this sentiment, urging the U.S. to address high deficits and China to pivot from investment-driven growth to a consumption-based model.

Sources:

[1] title1 (url1)

[2] title2 (url2)

[3] title3 (url3)

[4] title4 (url4)

[5] title5 (url5)

[6] title6 (url6)

[7] title7 (url7)

[8] title8 (url8)

[9] title9 (url9)