Trump’s First 100 Days: A Market in Turmoil

In his first 100 days as president, Donald Trump has waged a multifront battle against perceived adversaries—foreign governments, central bankers, and even his own party’s economic orthodoxy. The result has been a seismic shift in the investment landscape, marked by volatility, policy-driven uncertainty, and a stark reevaluation of risk.

The immediate catalyst for market chaos was Trump’s aggressive trade agenda. On Day 1 of his 2025 term, he imposed sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on imports, targeting China, the EU, and others. The move triggered a sharp selloff in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging over 1,100 points in a single session on April 2025.

. While markets partially rebounded, the damage was done: the S&P 500 had erased all post-election gains, returning to pre-2024 levels by mid-April.

The Trade War’s Economic Toll

The tariffs’ ripple effects were swift. China retaliated, and Trump threatened to raise tariffs above 100%, escalating fears of a prolonged trade conflict. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) responded by downgrading its U.S. growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, a sharp cut from its previous 2.7% projection. Global growth was also slashed to 2.8%, with advanced economies expected to grow at just 1.4% annually.

The pain was uneven. Manufacturing and supply chain-dependent sectors faced margin pressures, while defense contractors saw fleeting gains. But even these beneficiaries were overshadowed by broader risks. The IMF warned that tariffs risked stoking “more persistent” inflation, undermining consumer spending and corporate profits.

A Fed in the Crosshairs

Trump’s war on perceived foes extended to the Federal Reserve. Publicly denouncing Chair Jerome Powell as a “loser,” he questioned his leadership and even suggested studying his removal—a direct assault on central bank independence.

The market reacted with alarm. Treasury yields spiked initially, reflecting inflation fears, but soon retreated as investors priced in an economic slowdown. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key gauge of growth expectations, swung wildly, while the dollar’s value eroded as global investors lost faith in U.S. fiscal stability.

Consumer Confidence Collapses

Trump’s policies also took a toll on Main Street. A June 2025 survey found 67% of Americans linking tariffs to recession risks—a sentiment cutting across partisan lines. Republican voters, once stalwart supporters, expressed their lowest economic expectations in 12 years.

Consumer confidence, a critical driver of growth, plummeted to levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Retail stocks like Walmart and Target saw declines, while tech giants like Apple and Amazon faced headwinds from tariff-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

The Fiscal Tightrope

Compounding these risks was the administration’s fiscal agenda. A push to extend tax cuts and expand the deficit further strained markets. The need to issue more Treasuries to fund deficits risked pushing borrowing costs higher, squeezing both public and private sectors.

Even cryptocurrencies, once touted as a Trumpian “Bitcoin superpower” initiative, faltered. Bitcoin’s post-election surge faded into double-digit declines by early 2025, reflecting broader market instability.

Conclusion: A Precarious Outlook

Trump’s first 100 days have left investors navigating a minefield of contradictions. While temporary tariff pauses sparked rallies, the underlying risks—slower growth, elevated inflation, and geopolitical strain—remain unresolved.

The data is damning: the S&P 500 has stagnated, the dollar is weakening, and recession probabilities hover near 50%, according to some estimates. The IMF’s growth downgrades and the market’s loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal stewardship underscore a critical truth: aggressive populism may win elections, but it exacts a steep economic toll.

For investors, the path forward is fraught. Sectors reliant on global trade or stable interest rates face headwinds, while defensive plays—like utilities or gold—may offer fleeting shelter. Yet as Trump’s rhetoric and policies continue to unsettle markets, one thing is clear: the era of stable, predictable growth is over.

The next 100 days will test whether markets can find stability—or if the administration’s war on adversaries will become a war on the economy itself.