Trump's 100-Day Agenda: Trade, Diplomacy, and the Torpedoes of Disruption

Investors are bracing for volatility as President Donald Trump’s 2025 administration embarks on its first 100 days, a period framed by aggressive trade deals, high-stakes peace negotiations, and a controversial strategy dubbed “torpedoes” by insiders. The term, borrowed from Trump’s 2017 playbook, refers to policies designed to upend existing agreements and disrupt global norms—a tactic that could reshape markets, alliances, and geopolitical stability.

Trade Deals: Tariffs as Diplomacy?

The administration’s trade agenda centers on aggressive tariffs against key partners, including Canada, Mexico, and China. While these measures aim to “level the playing field,” history suggests such tactics carry risks. In 2017, Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from allies like Canada and the EU, plummeting as trade wars escalated. This time, the stakes are higher.

The shows a 10% dip in industrials and materials sectors, with automotive stocks—exposed to North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations—falling 15%. A repeat could pressure companies reliant on cross-border supply chains, while sectors like renewable energy might gain if tariffs accelerate a shift toward U.S. manufacturing.

Peace Talks: Jerusalem, Sanctions, and the Middle East

Trump’s push for Middle East peace involves moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem—a 2017 policy that saw a 20% drop in regional tourism and investment. This time, the administration is reportedly offering economic incentives to Israel and Palestine, including debt relief and infrastructure projects.

However, the move risks inflaming tensions. If history repeats, regional instability could spike oil prices. During 2017’s embassy announcement, Brent crude surged 8% amid fears of supply disruptions. Investors in energy stocks or ETFs tracking the sector should monitor geopolitical headlines closely.

The “Torpedoes”: Undermining Global Agreements

The term “torpedoes” alludes to policies that sabotage existing frameworks, such as the Paris Climate Accord withdrawal in 2017 or NATO funding demands. These actions saw European allies increase military budgets by an average of 5% annually, while U.S. credibility in multilateral forums plummeted.

Today, Trump’s administration is reportedly preparing to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which previously caused crude prices to jump 15% in 2018. A new rupture could destabilize the global energy market and reward commodities investors.

Conclusion: Navigating the Storm

Trump’s 100-day agenda is a high-risk, high-reward proposition for investors. The “torpedoes” strategy—rooted in unilateralism and disruption—could create opportunities in sectors insulated from trade wars, such as U.S. defense contractors or domestic energy producers. Meanwhile, industries exposed to tariffs or geopolitical tension, like automotive or tourism, face headwinds.

History offers caution: During 2017-2018, the S&P 500’s tech sector outperformed by 20%, shielded by its reliance on domestic innovation. Similarly, gold prices rose 15% as investors sought safe havens amid uncertainty. For 2025, a diversified portfolio emphasizing resilience—low-debt firms, precious metals, and sectors insulated from trade wars—may be key.

As Trump’s administration sets course, one truth remains: markets thrive on predictability, and this administration’s torpedoes aim to shatter it.

Investors would do well to heed the lessons of the past—and prepare for the storm ahead.