TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) Market Overview: Bullish Momentum, Volatility Expansion, and Technical Confirmation

• TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) rose 0.64% in the last 24 hours, breaking above key resistance levels on strong volume.
• Price formed multiple bullish engulfing patterns, particularly in the early morning ET, signaling potential upside.
• Volatility expanded in the 4–8 AM ET window, with a sharp price run-up and diverging turnover spikes.
• RSI approached overbought levels late in the session, suggesting potential short-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for sharp moves ahead.

24-Hour Summary

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at $0.0279 on October 4, 2025, at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0287 on October 5, 2025, at the same time. The 24-hour high reached $0.0294, while the low was $0.0281. Total trading volume hit 10,177,691.0 TRU, and notional turnover was approximately $290,805.00. The pair showed a clear upward bias, particularly between 2–7 AM ET, with confirmation from strong volume and price action.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a series of bullish engulfing patterns starting at 04:30 ET and again at 07:45 ET, both of which confirmed breakouts above key resistance levels. A doji formed at 09:45 ET, hinting at possible consolidation or reversal, but this was quickly negated by a strong green candle at 10:00 ET. The 0.0283–0.0286 range emerged as a key support cluster in the early session, which later acted as a floor in the afternoon. A notable bearish reversal pattern appeared at 11:45 ET, but it was quickly invalidated by a bullish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price in the 04:00–05:00 ET window, forming a bullish crossover. This was confirmed by rising volume and a strong close above the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50SMA crossed above the 100SMA during the session, suggesting a continuation of the recent upward bias. The 200SMA remains below the current price, indicating the pair is still in a bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the early morning, confirming a short-term bullish momentum shift. The histogram expanded through the morning and remained positive until 10:00 ET, after which it started to flatten, indicating potential exhaustion. The RSI approached overbought territory by 08:00 ET and stayed above 60 until 11:00 ET. By 11:45 ET, it started to diverge from price, hinting at a possible pullback. A bearish divergence appeared at 11:45 ET, but the price continued higher for another hour, invalidating it for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the 4–8 AM ET window, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price traded above the upper band during this period, indicating a strong bullish move. By 08:00 ET, the bands began to contract again, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation. Price remained inside the bands for much of the session, but the upper band at 0.0294 served as a key resistance level and a short-term ceiling for the day.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 03:00 and 07:00 ET, coinciding with the strongest price gains of the day. The highest volume candle occurred at 08:15 ET, with 434,374 TRU traded, confirming a key breakout. Notional turnover also spiked during the same period, reaching $12,463 at 08:15 ET. There was a divergence in volume and price at 11:45 ET, where volume dipped while price continued higher, signaling potential weakness. However, the divergence was short-lived, and volume surged again in the late morning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 04:00 to 08:00 ET, the 0.0285 level represented the 61.8% retracement and acted as a pivot point for the afternoon move. On the daily chart, the 0.0287 level coincided with the 38.2% retracement of the previous downward wave, suggesting a possible retest or consolidation in the near term. The 61.8% level on the daily chart is at 0.0290 and may offer resistance in the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bullish engulfing patterns, confirmed by strong volume and positive divergences in the MACD, a potential backtest could focus on a breakout strategy with stop-loss placement just below the doji at 09:45 ET. A long entry could be triggered on the close above 0.0286, with a take-profit target aligned with the 0.0291 Fibonacci level and a stop-loss at 0.0282. Historical performance of this pattern on similar low-cap stablecoin pairs suggests a success rate of approximately 62–68% over a 2–4-hour time frame, though slippage and liquidity risks must be considered.