TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) Market Overview

• TRUUSDT fell 2.1% over 24 hours, closing below key support at 0.0294 after a bearish breakout.
• Volume surged during the morning ET consolidation before a sharp sell-off in the afternoon and evening.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI below 30 and MACD in negative territory.
• Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion post-18:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility.
• Downtrend confirmed by lower highs and closes, with no bullish reversal signs observed.

TrueFi/Tether (TRUUSDT) opened at 0.0293 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0284 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.03 and a low of 0.0281. Total volume over 24 hours was 33,649,085 TRU, with notional turnover at $953,727. The pair has been in a consistent downtrend amid bearish momentum and weak volume confirmation at key levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period displayed a steady bearish bias, with the price failing to reclaim the 0.0296–0.03 range. Key support levels at 0.0294, 0.029, and 0.0285 were tested and broken, with a notable breakdown at 0.0294 confirming bearish continuation. Candlestick patterns included multiple bearish engulfing setups and a potential 2B bottom pattern failing to hold. No strong reversal patterns emerged; instead, the price formed a descending wedge structure from 0.03 downward.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 50-period and 20-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish control. The 20-period MA acted as dynamic resistance during the morning and afternoon sessions, failing to hold at 0.0294–0.0295. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are likely aligned in a downtrend, with TRUUSDT now well below all three, indicating a deeper bearish bias and possible continuation of the 0.029–0.0285 range.

MACD & RSI

MACD was negative for most of the period, with a bearish crossover confirmed after 17:00 ET and maintaining a bearish signal until the close. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but with no strong reversal signs, a continuation of the downtrend is likely. The bearish divergence between price and RSI in the late ET hours also points to ongoing selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate but increased during the sell-off, with a Bollinger Band expansion starting around 18:00 ET. The price closed near the lower band at 0.0284, indicating oversold conditions. However, without a strong reversal candlestick, the likelihood of a bounce remains low. The band width widening suggests traders may need to watch for a potential reversal at 0.0283–0.0284 or a continuation lower into 0.028–0.0275.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and notional turnover increased notably after 17:00 ET, aligning with the breakdown in price. The volume spikes at 0.0294 and 0.0295 confirmed the bearish breakout. By late ET, volume continued to support the downtrend, with the largest volume cluster at 0.0293–0.0295. No divergence between price and volume was observed, reinforcing the bearish signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.03 to 0.028 swing were tested, with the 38.2% retracement at 0.0293 and the 61.8% at 0.0291 both failing to hold. The 78.6% retracement at 0.0285 is now a critical level to watch, with a break below likely confirming a deeper leg down. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels may be aligned with the next leg down if the 0.0275 level is reached.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a mean-reversion framework based on the RSI and Bollinger Bands, entering long positions when RSI crosses below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, while exiting when RSI crosses back above 50 or after three days. This approach aligns with the observed overbought/oversold conditions and Bollinger Band dynamics in the 24-hour period. Given the recent oversold conditions and the absence of reversal patterns, the strategy may have triggered a long signal near 0.0284, though execution would depend on confirmation via RSI rebound. While promising in historical tests, the current bearish environment and weak volume may reduce its efficacy, requiring caution and tight stop-loss levels.