Truckload Rejection Rates Surge in Largest US-Mexico Cross-Border Market

The truckload market, particularly in the largest US-Mexico cross-border corridor, has witnessed a significant surge in rejection rates, posing challenges for shippers and carriers alike. This trend, driven by a combination of factors, has led to increased costs and strained supply chains. Let's delve into the reasons behind this surge and explore strategies to mitigate its impact.

Factors Driving the Surge in Rejection Rates

1. Increased Demand: The growing trend of nearshoring and the shift of manufacturing from China to Mexico has led to an increase in demand for cross-border transportation. This increased demand, combined with a limited supply of trucks, has resulted in higher rejection rates (Sunset Transportation, 2023).
2. Capacity Constraints: The trucking industry in the US-Mexico cross-border market is facing capacity constraints due to a combination of factors, including driver shortages, regulatory hurdles, and the aging fleet. This limited capacity, coupled with increased demand, leads to higher rejection rates (FreightWaves, 2025).
3. Border Congestion and Security Risks: The US-Mexico border is one of the busiest and most vital trade corridors in North America, presenting unique challenges such as congestion, security risks, and stringent customs requirements. These factors can disrupt supply chains and contribute to higher rejection rates (Mexico News Daily, 2025).
4. Seasonal Fluctuations: The cross-border truckload market experiences seasonal fluctuations, with peak demand periods during the holiday season and other high-volume periods. During these times, rejection rates tend to increase due to the higher demand for transportation services (FreightWaves, 2025).
5. Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainties: The ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the USMCA trade agreement and potential tariff threats, can impact the cross-border truckload market. These uncertainties can lead to fluctuations in demand and capacity, contributing to higher rejection rates (FreightWaves, 2025).



Strategies to Mitigate the Impact of High Rejection Rates

To mitigate the impact of high rejection rates on their operations and costs, shippers and carriers can employ several strategies. These strategies have been proven effective in the past and are supported by data and examples from the provided materials.

1. Increase Lead Times: Shippers can increase the lead time for their shipments to give carriers more time to plan and accept loads. This strategy has been shown to decrease rejection rates. According to the research by Yoo Joon Kim, shorter lead times have a correlation with higher primary acceptance rates and higher costs (Kim, 2025). By providing more notice, shippers can help carriers better manage their capacity and reduce the likelihood of rejections.
2. Diversify Carrier Portfolio: Shippers should work with a diverse portfolio of carriers to increase the chances that one will accept their shipment. This strategy can help mitigate the risk of having all carriers reject a challenging load. As mentioned in the materials, "having a diverse portfolio of carriers you work with can increase the chances that one will accept the shipment" (CH Robinson, 2025).
3. Clearly Define RFPs: Shippers should ensure that their requests for proposals (RFPs) are clear and detailed, outlining the shipment program, lanes, volume, and other necessary information. This helps carriers understand the requirements and make informed decisions about accepting the freight. By clearly stating every necessary detail in the RFP, shippers can increase the chances of their shipment being accepted (CH Robinson, 2025).
4. Optimize Routes and Lanes: Carriers can optimize their routes and lanes to better match their capacity with demand. This can help reduce rejection rates by ensuring that carriers are more likely to accept loads that fit their available capacity. According to the research by Yoo Joon Kim, longer lanes (over 100 miles) had higher tender rejection rates, while shorter lanes had lower rejection rates (Kim, 2025). By optimizing their routes, carriers can better match their capacity with demand and reduce rejections.
5. Use a 3PL: Shippers can utilize a third-party logistics (3PL) provider to help optimize their unique processes and increase truckload acceptance. 3PLs have the expertise and resources to help shippers navigate the complexities of the truckload market and mitigate the impact of high rejection rates (CH Robinson, 2025).

In conclusion, the surge in truckload rejection rates in the largest US-Mexico cross-border market presents challenges for shippers and carriers alike. By understanding the factors driving this trend and implementing proven strategies, stakeholders can mitigate the impact of high rejection rates on their operations and costs. As the market continues to evolve, shippers and carriers must remain adaptable and proactive in their approach to supply chain management.