Truckload Market Recovery: Is Now the Time to Invest in Asset-Light Freight Providers Like RXO?

The U.S. truckload market is at a crossroads. After years of volatility, the industry is navigating a delicate balance between decelerating demand, shrinking supply, and the shadow of trade policy uncertainty. For investors, this inflection point raises a critical question: Can asset-light freight providers like RXO (RXO) capitalize on these structural shifts to outperform in a market primed for a long-term reset? Let's break it down.

Supply-Demand Dynamics: A Market in Transition

The truckload spot rate growth story has shifted from a sprint to a crawl. In Q2 2025, year-over-year growth slowed to 6.5%, down from 9.1% in Q1 and 11.6% in Q4 2024. While this deceleration might seem like a red flag, it's actually a sign of stabilization. Carriers are no longer chasing unsustainable rate hikes, and shippers are no longer hoarding capacity. Instead, the market is settling into a fragile equilibrium—until it isn't.

The real catalyst here is carrier attrition. The number of for-hire carriers has plummeted, with C.H. Robinson reporting a sustained decline in carriers with operating authority. This attrition has tightened capacity, especially in generic freight segments like dry van trailers. Carriers are now prioritizing specialized equipment, which is harder to scale. The result? A market where even minor disruptions—like the CVSA International Roadcheck or seasonal produce surges—can trigger sharp rate spikes.

Structural Shifts: Trade Policy and Consumer Behavior

The elephant in the room is trade policy uncertainty. Tariffs loom large, with Q1 2025 seeing a 14.5% surge in imports as shippers rushed to stockpile goods before potential tariffs kicked in. But Q2 data tells a different story: import volumes are already cooling, and consumer confidence has hit a multi-decade low. Americans are shifting spending from goods to services—dining, travel, and entertainment—reducing the volume of freight tied to retail.

This shift is bad news for traditional truckload operators but a goldmine for data-driven brokers like RXO. With its acquisition of Coyote Logistics in September 2024, RXO now controls a treasure trove of real-time shipment data from 18 years of transactions. This gives it a 360-degree view of capacity constraints, rate trends, and even carrier behavior. When the market tightens, RXO's proprietary tools—like its Curve index and all-in cost-per-mile metric—let it price freight more accurately and capture margin in a fragmented market.

RXO's Strategic Edge: Data as a Moat

What sets RXO apart isn't just its data—it's how it uses it. The company's all-in cost-per-mile index reveals that carriers are now earning rates closer to 2014 levels but facing operating costs 34% higher. This margin squeeze is forcing carriers to exit the market, creating a vacuum RXO can exploit.

Meanwhile, RXO's Curve index shows spot rates outpacing contract rates, a trend that's likely to continue as carriers demand higher compensation for rising costs. For RXO, this means more flexibility to adjust pricing in real time, a critical advantage in a market where volatility is the new normal.

The Investment Case: Timing the Inflection Point

So, is now the time to buy RXO? The answer hinges on three factors:
1. Capacity Constraints: With carrier attrition accelerating, the market is likely to see more frequent rate spikes, especially during peak seasons. RXO's data-driven approach positions it to capture these spikes efficiently.
2. Trade Policy Clarity: If tariffs stabilize or recede, shippers may ramp up inventory builds, boosting freight demand. RXO's network is uniquely positioned to handle this surge.
3. Cost Inflation: As operating costs climb, carriers will need to pass these expenses to shippers. RXO's analytics can help it price freight at a premium, squeezing out competitors with less visibility.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play

The truckload market isn't just recovering—it's evolving. Asset-light providers like RXO are winning because they're not just reacting to market shifts; they're anticipating them. With its data moat, strategic acquisitions, and ability to navigate policy-driven uncertainty, RXO is a prime candidate for long-term outperformance.

For investors, the key is to act before the market fully recognizes RXO's potential. This isn't a short-term trade—it's a bet on the future of freight. And in a world where data is the new oil, RXO is sitting on a gusher.

Final Call to Action: For those with a medium-term horizon, consider adding RXO to a diversified portfolio. Monitor its Curve index and cost-per-mile trends for early signals of a market inflection. In a sector where visibility is scarce, RXO's clarity is a competitive edge worth betting on.