Truckload Freight Faces Crosscurrents: DAT Data Reveals a Fragile Market Outlook
3min read The truckload freight market in April 2025 presented a paradox: seasonal demand for construction and agricultural goods typically lifts volumes, yet broader economic headwinds and supply chain shifts kept the industry on shaky ground. Data from DAT Solutions, a leading freight marketplace, shows a mixed picture of declining truckload volumes for van and reefer freight, rising flatbed demand, and narrowing rate spreads that hint at lingering market softness. For investors, the numbers underscore a sector caught between cyclical optimism and structural uncertainty.
Ask Aime: What's next for the truckload freight market?
A Market Frozen in Place
April’s DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) revealed uneven trends across freight types. Van freight volumes dipped 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), while reefer freight fell 3.1% MoM—a significant drop for a segment that usually benefits from perishable goods shipping. Only flatbed freight bucked the trend, climbing 2.5% MoM as demand for industrial and construction materials held firm. Year-over-year comparisons, however, told a more positive story: all three segments showed growth compared to April 2024, though van and reefer gains were modest (1% and 4%, respectively).
Spot rates, which reflect real-time market pricing, reflected this mixed reality. Van spot rates fell 3 cents to $1.96 per mile, while reefer rates held steady at $2.27. Flatbed, however, surged for the fifth consecutive month, rising 4 cents to $2.57. The standout performer was flatbed’s linehaul rate (excluding fuel surcharges), which increased 5 cents MoM to $2.11—a sign that carriers are successfully negotiating higher base rates in this niche.
Contract Rates Lag, Spreads Widen
The bigger concern lies in contract rates, which remain below 2024 levels despite seasonal tailwinds. Van contract rates averaged $2.40 per mile in April—unchanged MoM but down 6 cents YoY. Reefers and flatbeds fared slightly better, with contract rates edging up 2 and 4 cents MoM, respectively, but both still trailed prior-year levels by 8 and 5 cents.
Ask Aime: Which freight types are showing the most growth in April 2025?
The growing gap between contract and spot rates—now at 44 cents for van, 47 cents for reefer, and 51 cents for flatbed—signals a market where carriers are accepting lower spot rates to fill capacity, a classic indicator of oversupply. Ken Adamo, DAT’s Chief Analytics Officer, called the market “frozen,” citing tariff-driven inventory stockpiling and manufacturing slowdowns as key drags. “April’s data suggests rates have hit a pricing floor ahead of summer,” he said. “But whether that holds depends on whether demand rebounds or softness deepens.”
DAT Solutions is part of Roper Technologies (ROP), a conglomerate whose stock has underperformed the broader market amid sector-specific pressures. Investors tracking ROP should note that DAT’s data—critical for pricing and capacity decisions—may not yet reflect the full impact of current market dynamics.
Implications for Investors
The April data paints a sector in limbo. While flatbed’s strength suggests opportunities in industrial and energy freight, van and reefer declines point to weak consumer demand and manufacturing retrenchment. For investors in trucking firms like JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) or XPO Logistics (XPO), the widening rate spreads are a warning: carriers may struggle to offset lower contract rates with higher spot revenues if demand falters further.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported March freight tonnage dipped 1.5% MoM, though it rose 0.2% YoY. This inconsistency underscores the challenge of forecasting a market where macroeconomic uncertainty—trade tensions, interest rates, and energy costs—looms large.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act
April’s truckload data reveals a market clinging to a “pricing floor” but lacking the momentum to ignite a strong summer peak. With contract rates still trailing last year’s levels and the TVI’s mixed signals, carriers and shippers face a high-stakes balancing act. The flatbed segment’s resilience offers a glimmer of hope, but van and reefer declines—driven by weaker consumer and manufacturing activity—suggest systemic challenges.
Investors should watch two key metrics: the TVI’s year-over-year trends (which remain positive but narrowing) and fuel surcharge dynamics, which averaged 39–46 cents per mile in April. If fuel costs rise further while demand stagnates, carriers’ margins could come under renewed pressure. For now, the market’s “frozen” state leaves little room for error—a reminder that even seasonal optimism must be tempered by the realities of a fragile freight economy.
The spread between contract and spot rates has now widened for four consecutive months, a pattern unseen since the post-pandemic downturn. With DAT’s data showing flatbed linehaul rates at $2.11 and van spot rates near $1.96, the math for carriers is stark: to survive, they must either stabilize contract rates or see spot demand surge. In a market this uncertain, neither outcome is assured.
