Trucking Sector Vulnerability Amid Declining Port and Rail Activity

The North American freight logistics landscape in 2025 is marked by a paradox: while port container throughput surged and rail freight volumes showed resilience, the trucking sector faces mounting vulnerabilities. This divergence underscores strategic risks for investors exposed to freight logistics, as bottlenecks in ports and rail networks strain downstream operations.

Port Throughput Trends: A Double-Edged Sword

North American ports experienced a 12.8% year-over-year increase in containerized imports in 2024, driven by e-commerce and inventory restocking, according to the Datamyne Top 30 report. Los Angeles alone handled 5.36 million TEUs, a 21.4% rise, per Datamyne. However, this growth came at a cost. Congestion worsened, with anchor times increasing at 9 of 11 major ports and delays averaging 8.93 days in New York-New Jersey due to labor disputes, per a VizionAPI analysis. Such delays force trucking companies to absorb longer dwell times and higher operational costs, as cargo lingers at ports awaiting clearance, according to a C.H. Robinson update.

Rail Freight Dynamics: Mixed Gains and Commodity Shifts

Rail freight volumes in 2025 reflected a mixed but generally positive trajectory. While weekly traffic dipped in late 2025-down 2.4% for the week ending September 6-year-to-date growth reached 3.3%, per Datamyne. Motor vehicles and parts led gains, rising 7.1%, while chemicals and coal declined by 8.8% and 4.4%, respectively, according to VizionAPI. This shift highlights rail's growing specialization in high-value, time-sensitive cargo, potentially reducing its role in bulk freight traditionally handled by trucks, as noted by the AAR data center.

Strategic Risks for the Trucking Sector

The trucking industry's exposure to these trends is multifaceted. First, port congestion has created a disconnect between upstream and downstream logistics. While ports processed 28.1 million TEUs in 2024, ground logistics volumes stagnated, with the ATA Truck Tonnage Index hovering near 113 points, according to C.H. Robinson. This imbalance reflects underutilized truck capacity and soft domestic demand, squeezing margins.

Second, rail's intermodal growth-up 4.0% year-to-date-signals a shift in freight modal preferences. Trucking's reliance on flexibility for last-mile delivery and non-containerized cargo remains critical, but declining rail freight for chemicals and coal could reduce complementary demand, Datamyne notes.

Third, regulatory headwinds loom. The U.S. government's 25% tariff on heavy-duty truck imports threatens to inflate operating costs and delay fleet modernization, according to C.H. Robinson. Combined with labor shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, these pressures amplify the sector's vulnerability.

Investment Implications

For investors, the key lies in hedging against overexposure to trucking's cyclical risks. While the C.H. Robinson forecast anticipates modest rate increases in 2025-2026, market stabilization is unlikely before late 2025 or early 2026, per C.H. Robinson. Diversification into rail-focused logistics or port infrastructure investments-such as the $580 million in U.S. port upgrades-could offer more resilient returns, the Datamyne report states.

Conclusion

The trucking sector's vulnerability is not a collapse but a recalibration. As ports and rail networks adapt to trade dynamics, trucking's role will increasingly depend on its ability to navigate congestion, regulatory shifts, and modal competition. Strategic investors must weigh these risks against long-term infrastructure investments and policy-driven market adjustments.