Trophy Games: H1 Performance and Strategic Momentum Signal Strong H2 Upside

The casual gaming sector in 2025 remains a battleground of innovation and efficiency, where companies must balance user acquisition costs, monetization strategies, and platform-specific challenges to sustain growth. Trophy Games Development, a Danish developer and publisher of hyper-casual and casual games, has emerged as a standout performer in this competitive landscape. With its first-half 2025 results and strategic initiatives, the company has demonstrated a compelling mix of financial resilience, user growth, and forward-looking momentum. For investors, these factors position Trophy Games as a high-conviction opportunity in a sector poised for long-term value creation.

H1 2025: A Blueprint for Sustainable Growth

Trophy Games' Q1 2025 results underscore its ability to navigate the sector's challenges while accelerating revenue and user metrics. Total revenue reached DKK 21.7 million, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by a 25% YoY jump in EBITDA to DKK 6.1 million and a 31% rise in Earnings Before Tax (EBT) to DKK 4.0 million. These figures reflect a strategic shift toward ad-driven monetization, which reduces reliance on high-fee in-app purchases (IAPs). The company's revenue mix now benefits from lower payment fees for ad revenue, amplifying profitability.

User growth metrics are equally impressive. Total installs surged 201% YoY to 9.1 million, fueled by organic traction for titles like Truck Manager and the Tivola portfolio. Unique paying users rose 34% to 119,211, while total payments increased 24% to 291,302. This growth is not just quantitative but qualitative: Truck Manager, currently in early access, has already outpaced the second-largest title in daily active users and is on track to surpass Shipping Manager and Energy Manager in revenue during Q2.

The company's updated 2025 guidance—DKK 96 million to DKK 108 million in revenue (up from DKK 85 million to DKK 106 million)—signals confidence in its trajectory. Preliminary H1 results (DKK 45.3 million revenue, DKK 9.7 million EBITDA) suggest a strong foundation for the second half, with Farm Manager (launching in July) and Truck Manager expected to drive monthly revenues of DKK 2–3 million.

Navigating the Competitive Landscape: Risks and Opportunities

The casual gaming sector faces headwinds, including rising user acquisition costs (CPI) and platform disparities. In 2025, the average CPI for casual games stabilized around $1, with Android at $0.63 per install and iOS at $2.23 post-App Tracking Transparency (ATT) changes. Trophy Games' focus on simulation games—a genre with the lowest CPI ($0.59) and strong ROAS (8.5%)—positions it to optimize UA spend.

However, the company's success hinges on its ability to adapt to evolving monetization trends. The sector is shifting toward hybrid models (season passes, subscriptions) and ad-supported freemium strategies. Trophy Games' emphasis on ad revenue aligns with this trend, but it must also mitigate risks like user fatigue from aggressive ad placements and regulatory scrutiny over microtransactions.

Regionally, Trophy Games benefits from a diversified approach. While North America offers the highest ROAS, Latin America provides cost-effective UA. By leveraging geo-targeted strategies, the company can balance scalability with profitability.

Strategic Momentum: Catalysts for H2 Upside

Trophy Games' second-half momentum is anchored in three pillars:
1. Truck Manager's Marketing Launch: The game's early access success validates its potential to become a top-tier title. A full marketing campaign in Q2 could accelerate user acquisition and monetization.
2. Farm Manager's Launch: Scheduled for July 2025, this title is expected to replicate the success of Truck Manager, leveraging similar simulation mechanics and ad-driven monetization.
3. Expansion into PC Publishing: The Ranchers, a new title in early access, will test Trophy Games' capabilities in PC publishing. A successful launch could open new revenue streams and validate the company's long-term strategy.

These initiatives are not just incremental—they represent a strategic pivot toward diversified revenue streams and cross-platform growth. By expanding beyond mobile and refining its monetization models, Trophy Games is building a moat against sector-wide headwinds.

Investment Thesis: Balancing Caution and Optimism

For investors, Trophy Games presents a compelling case. Its H1 performance demonstrates operational excellence, while its updated guidance reflects confidence in scaling revenue and profitability. However, the company's reliance on ad revenue and platform-specific challenges (e.g., iOS's high CPI) necessitate a cautious approach.

Key risks include:
- User Acquisition Volatility: Fluctuations in CPI and ROAS could pressure margins.
- Market Saturation: The casual gaming sector's crowded landscape demands continuous innovation.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Monetization practices, particularly ad formats, may attract regulatory attention.

Despite these risks, Trophy Games' strategic agility and strong first-half execution justify a bullish outlook. The company's focus on high-performing genres, cost-effective UA, and diversified monetization models positions it to outperform peers.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play in a High-Growth Sector

Trophy Games' H1 2025 results and strategic initiatives highlight its potential to deliver outsized returns in the casual gaming sector. With a robust pipeline, updated guidance, and a clear path to monetizing its user base, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on H2 momentum. For investors seeking exposure to a developer with both financial discipline and innovation, Trophy Games offers a compelling opportunity.

In a sector defined by rapid change and razor-thin margins, Trophy Games has proven its ability to adapt and thrive. As it enters the second half of 2025, the company's focus on sustainable growth and shareholder value creation makes it a name to watch.