TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) Market Overview: Volatility and Bearish Reversal Dominate 24-Hour Session

• TRXJPY declined 2.6% over 24 hours, closing at 51.33 Yen after a volatile bearish reversal
• Key support tested at ¥51.30–51.26, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, suggesting increased uncertainty
• Volume surged at session lows, with heavy selling pressure evident after 03:30 ET
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early morning, followed by a long lower shadow at close

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, TRXJPY opened at 51.51 Yen and traded between 51.14 and 52.25 Yen over the 24-hour period, closing at 51.33 Yen. Total trading volume reached 205,966.87 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately ¥10,501,323. The price action reflected heightened volatility and bearish momentum, especially during early trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour period showed a bearish reversal, with key support levels forming around ¥51.30 and ¥51.26. Notably, a bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:30 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. Later in the session, at 12:00 ET, a long lower shadow suggested buyers attempted to push the price higher but failed, reinforcing the bearish bias. Additionally, a doji at 09:00 ET indicated indecision and a potential turning point in the trend.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price, reinforcing a bearish signal. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance around ¥51.75–51.80 during earlier sessions. MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover confirmed during the morning reversal. The RSI dropped into oversold territory near ¥51.26, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation in the short term, but not a reversal in the medium term.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours, indicating heightened volatility. The price traded near the lower band at several points, especially after 03:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent ¥52.25 high to the ¥51.14 low show key support at 61.8% (¥51.31) and 38.2% (¥51.59). The price tested the 61.8% level twice in the final 6 hours, confirming its importance for near-term support.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish reversal at 03:30 ET and again at the session low at 03:45 ET, reaching over 19,000 units in the two largest 15-minute intervals. This suggests strong selling pressure. Notional turnover also surged during those periods, confirming the bearish move with high conviction. A divergence between price and volume was not observed during the day, as both metrics aligned to confirm the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing pattern and a target based on a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. This strategy aligns well with the morning bearish engulfing pattern observed at 03:30 ET, which was confirmed by subsequent price action and declining momentum. Given the strong support at ¥51.26 and ¥51.30, and with the 20-period MA below the price, a similar short strategy could be tested in the next 24 hours to confirm its viability in this market context.