TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from 50.33 to 49.85 amid bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier, now oversold.
• Volume surged during key breaks, confirming trend strength.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in the morning, followed by expansion.
• A key support level formed near 49.90–49.95.

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 50.05 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 49.90 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 50.46 (high) and 49.85 (low), with a total volume of approximately 114,528.89 TRX and a notional turnover of ¥5,701,490.35 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a clear bearish trend after a sharp rally in the early hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:45 ET, signaling a potential reversal from a short-term high. Later, a long-bodied bearish candle at 05:30 ET confirmed further weakness. A key support level emerged near 49.90–49.95, where the price found temporary relief multiple times. A doji formed near 14:30 ET, suggesting indecision and a potential short-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected during the early morning, forming a death cross as the 20 MA dipped below the 50 MA. This signaled a bearish shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 MA crossed below the 200 MA, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the broader trend. The 100 MA provided a resistance level around 50.20, which the price failed to reclaim after the initial breakout.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with the histogram turning negative and diverging from the price during the afternoon sell-off. RSI entered overbought territory at 61.8 in the early morning, but later dropped to oversold levels (below 30) during the afternoon, indicating a potential rebound could be on the horizon. However, the bearish momentum remained strong, with RSI failing to show significant bounce despite volume increases.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands demonstrated a clear contraction during the early morning, suggesting a period of low volatility and a potential breakout. A sharp downward move followed shortly after, breaking below the lower band at around 04:30 ET. The price continued to trade near the lower band for much of the day, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure. A minor retracement in the late afternoon brought the price closer to the middle band, indicating a possible consolidation period ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during key bearish moves, especially between 04:30 and 06:00 ET, when the price dropped from 50.25 to 49.90. Turnover increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the downward move. Later in the afternoon, a divergence appeared between price and volume, with volume declining despite a modest rebound. This suggests weakening conviction in the short-term recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 50.33 to 49.85, the 38.2% level is at 50.12 and the 61.8% level at 49.98. The price found temporary support at the 61.8% level multiple times during the day, suggesting a key area to watch for potential bounce or further breakdown. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent high at 50.46 sits at 50.23, which the price briefly tested before resuming the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and the recent formation of key support and resistance levels, a short-term mean-reversion strategy could be considered. The strategy would involve entering short positions on bearish breakouts below key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 49.95) and taking profits at the next higher retracement level. Stop-losses would be placed slightly above the 50.10–50.15 range to limit risk exposure. If RSI continues to signal oversold conditions without a strong reversal, it would serve as a trigger to close positions and reassess the trend. The recent divergence between volume and price during the afternoon recovery also suggests caution when entering short positions near the 61.8% level, as it could indicate a potential rebound.